- The Marlins (36-40) are -130 favorites vs the Nationals (29-51)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (5-4), 2.97 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (5-5), 4.39 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Miami Marlins (-130) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+110) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 36-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 33-47 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -115 | -130 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -105 | +110 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+5.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -155 |
| Pablo Lopez | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+7.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 away games (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 22 games (+1.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 away games (+0.65 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 67 games (+14.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 39-37 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -2% ROI).
- 36-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -7.02% ROI
- 38-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1.83% ROI
- 36-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.3 Units / -6.38% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-47 against the Run Line (-21 Units / -21.22% ROI).
- 29-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.5 Units / -16.06% ROI
- 40-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.22% ROI
- 36-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -8.53% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 40% (106/266) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 43% (60/141) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .057 (2 GB hits out of 35 GBs) against Pablo Lopez with runners on base this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has located his breaking pitches down 92% of the time (46/50) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (278/525) when ahead in the count this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Erick Fedde has averaged 79.1 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 85.0 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .340 (17-for-50) against Erick Fedde’s low curves and sliders this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .193 — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 42% of Erick Fedde’s pitches (573/1,366) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 12-36 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Marlins are just 4-26 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Marlins are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.
The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 8-46 (.148) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 14-29 (.326) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 29-45 (.392) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Nationals are just 15-22 (.405) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 641 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 175 strikeouts in 612 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .334 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .645 (2,308 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 559 strikeouts in 2,815 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 171 strikeouts in 968 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 233 double plays in 1,798 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Marlins pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Juan Soto (Nationals): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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