Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 03, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (36-40) are -130 favorites vs the Nationals (29-51)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (5-4), 2.97 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (5-5), 4.39 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Miami Marlins (-130) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+110) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 36-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 33-47 ATS.

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins-1.5 +125O 8.5 -115-130
Nationals +1.5 -155U 8.5 -105+110

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+5.95 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)

Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Josh Bell 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Juan Soto 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Luis Garcia 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Josh Bell 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Juan Soto 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Luis Garcia 0.5 -250 0.5 +160

Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Josh Bell 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Juan Soto 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Luis Garcia 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Erick Fedde 4.5 +110 4.5 -155
Pablo Lopez 4.5 -135 4.5 -105
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+7.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 away games (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 22 games (+1.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 away games (+0.65 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 67 games (+14.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 39-37 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -2% ROI).

  • 36-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -7.02% ROI
  • 38-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1.83% ROI
  • 36-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.3 Units / -6.38% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-47 against the Run Line (-21 Units / -21.22% ROI).

  • 29-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.5 Units / -16.06% ROI
  • 40-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.22% ROI
  • 36-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -8.53% ROI

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 40% (106/266) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 43% (60/141) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .057 (2 GB hits out of 35 GBs) against Pablo Lopez with runners on base this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 98th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has located his breaking pitches down 92% of the time (46/50) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (278/525) when ahead in the count this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Erick Fedde has averaged 79.1 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 85.0 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .340 (17-for-50) against Erick Fedde’s low curves and sliders this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .193 — second Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 42% of Erick Fedde’s pitches (573/1,366) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins are just 12-36 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Marlins are just 4-26 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.

The Marlins are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.

The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are just 8-46 (.148) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 14-29 (.326) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Nationals are just 29-45 (.392) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Nationals are just 15-22 (.405) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.

Marlins hitters have 641 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have 175 strikeouts in 612 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .334 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .645 (2,308 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Nationals hitters have just 559 strikeouts in 2,815 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have just 171 strikeouts in 968 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 233 double plays in 1,798 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Marlins pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Juan Soto (Nationals): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.