- The – (49-29) are favorites vs the – (49-29)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (1-3), 5.23 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (4-10), 6.06 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 11:05am EDT in Washington.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 37-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 33-48 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s matchup with 71.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+6.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+4.25 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.50 Units / 78% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ehire Adrianza | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Maikel Franco | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ehire Adrianza | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Maikel Franco | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ehire Adrianza | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Maikel Franco | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 57 games (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 28 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 away games (+1.95 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 68 games (+13.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 games (+7.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 40-37 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -0.73% ROI).
- 37-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -5.84% ROI
- 39-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.55 Units / -0.64% ROI
- 36-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -7.66% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-48 against the Run Line (-22.5 Units / -22.4% ROI).
- 29-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.5 Units / -17.05% ROI
- 41-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 1.33% ROI
- 36-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -9.72% ROI
Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has limited playing time.
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .310 (109-for-352) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of 1.161 (88 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .728 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .235 (39-for-166) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 7.39 (35.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.65 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Marlins are just 29-3 (.906) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .920.
The Marlins are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.
The Marlins are just 4-26 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 8-47 (.145) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Nationals are just 100-15 (.870) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Nationals are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Nationals are just 3-47 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 641 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 175 strikeouts in 612 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .645 (2,308 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting .268 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Nationals are batting .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 235 double plays in 1,808 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.35 (1057.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (312.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Juan Soto (Nationals): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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