- The Marlins are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (-160) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Friday, June 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 38-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 39-28 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -115 | -160 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -105 | +135 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 77.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 27 games (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 away games (+9.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games (+18.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 41 games (+16.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 47 games (+16.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+14.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 41 games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 36 games (+11.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 36 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 58 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games (+10.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+8.75 Units / 35% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 61 games (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 49 games (+6.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 56 games (+3.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-36 against the Run Line (-11.25 Units / -12.06% ROI).
- 38-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.55 Units / 8.99% ROI
- 31-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.4 Units / -11.07% ROI
- 36-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 2.57% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 39-28 against the Run Line (+7.65 Units / 9.21% ROI).
- 27-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 2.95% ROI
- 30-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -8.58% ROI
- 33-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.61% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 57% (327/575) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 49% (427/879) against Sandy Alcantara in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has an ERA of 7.52 (20.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.79 — fourth Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (19/173 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (541/1,060) of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 41% of Trevor Williams’ non-fastballs (430/1,060) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (245/469) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 52% (425/811) on sliders since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are 5-27 (.156) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Marlins are just 10-53 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Marlins are just 1-15 (.062) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Marlins are just 75-18 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .873.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 28-53 (.346) after a win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 25-50 (.333) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.
The Nationals are just 25-127 (.164) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (1,894 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,590 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 951 strikeouts in 3,590 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 72 double plays in 472 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 465 strikeouts in 2,522 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 538 strikeouts in 2,765 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.71 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 141 strikeouts in 818 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% against Marlins pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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