- The Marlins are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Watch the game on MASN
The Miami Marlins (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Saturday, June 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 39-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 40-28 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 -110 | O 9 -110 | -175 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | U 9 -110 | +145 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 71.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 28 games (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+9.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jonathan Davis has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+9.75 Units / 85% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+9.50 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+17.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+17.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+15.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 59 games (+11.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 37 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games (+10.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 30% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 62 games (+12.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 50 games (+5.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.50 Units / 30% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-37 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -12.99% ROI).
- 39-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 10.01% ROI
- 32-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -9.6% ROI
- 36-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 1.17% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 40-28 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 10.25% ROI).
- 27-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 1.45% ROI
- 31-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.35 Units / -7.11% ROI
- 33-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.81% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (30/268 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .411 (30-for-73) against Braxton Garrett this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 0 Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (22/205 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 30% (239/800) against Braxton Garrett in non-two strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has walked 20 of 145 batters (14%) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (54/106) of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 40% of Jake Irvin’s pitches (238/591) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a strike rate of just 59% (350/591) this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are 5-27 (.156) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Marlins are 33-4 (.892) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Marlins are 7-23 (.233) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Marlins are just 30-22 (.577) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Nationals are just 38-77 (.330) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Nationals are just 25-50 (.333) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Nationals are just 26-127 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (1,894 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 75 double plays in 483 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .657 (1,894 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have drawn 112 walks in 1,730 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have 111 extra-base hits out of 394 total hits (just 28%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have just 325 strikeouts in 1,730 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 8 walks in 186 PA’s (4%) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Jean Segura (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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