- The Marlins are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Watch the game on MASN
The Miami Marlins (-160) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Sunday, June 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 40-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 40-29 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +100 | O 9 -115 | -160 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | U 9 -105 | +135 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 72.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+10.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+10.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 44 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 29 games (+10.10 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 43 games (+18.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+16.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 49 games (+15.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jorge Soler | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Garrett Cooper | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 38 games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 38 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 32% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+11.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 51 games (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 58 games (+3.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 34-37 against the Run Line (-11.25 Units / -11.79% ROI).
- 40-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.55 Units / 10.96% ROI
- 32-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.5 Units / -10.88% ROI
- 37-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 2.43% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 40-29 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 8.84% ROI).
- 27-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 31-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -8.45% ROI
- 34-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.53% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has induced opposing hitters to ground into 10 double plays in 39 opportunities (26%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .391 (68 Total Bases / 174 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — fourth Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .480 (48 Total Bases / 100 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (193/638) against Jesus Luzardo this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .312 (84-for-269) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .406 (26-for-64) against Patrick Corbin on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .250 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has struck out just 15% (43/290) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .298 (97-for-325) against Patrick Corbin this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are 5-27 (.156) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Marlins are just 75-18 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Marlins are 34-4 (.895) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Marlins are 11-105 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 29-50 (.367) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 28-54 (.341) after a win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.
The Nationals are just 26-128 (.169) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 77 double plays in 496 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 198 double plays in 1,513 opportunities (13%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,149 strikeouts in 5,783 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 111 extra-base hits out of 395 total hits (just 28%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Jeimer Candelario (Nationals): Thumb, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Jean Segura (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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