- The Marlins are -130 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo, 7.71 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin, 9.00 ERA
The Miami Marlins (-130) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (+110) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EST in West Palm Beach.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Marlins are 1-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 5-4 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | O 11.5 -105 | -130 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | U 11.5 -115 | +110 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 63.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Erik Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- Charles Leblanc has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-9 against the Run Line (-10.3 Units / -78.63% ROI).
- 1-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -71.61% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -22.22% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 13.33% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 5-4 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 2.59% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -6.67% ROI
- 2-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -57.79% ROI
- 7-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 48.73% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters swung at 53% of Jesus Luzardo’s pitches (285/534) with two-strikes last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo had a strike rate of just 59% (316/534) in two strike counts last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo had a strikeout rate of 27% (22/82) in PAs ending on inside fastballs last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .152 (30-for-197) against Jesus Luzardo on the road last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Division opponents batted .350 against Patrick Corbin (104-for-297) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of 1.047 (356 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .753 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .324 (73-for-225) against Patrick Corbin’s non-fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (654/1,506) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 94th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 67-76 (.469) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are 39-5 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 12-81 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Marlins batted just .208 against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters had 63 extra-base hits out of 242 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters slugged just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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