- The Marlins are -125 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
The Miami Marlins (-125) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (+105) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in West Palm Beach.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
So far in Spring Training, the Marlins are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 1-2 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +140 | O 10.5 -110 | -125 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | U 10.5 -110 | +105 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Thursday‘s matchup with 72.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Charles Leblanc has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Willians Astudillo has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Dee Strange-Gordon has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+3.10 Units / 103% ROI)
- Dee Strange-Gordon has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -41.67% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -58.59% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 20.93% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -29.67% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-1.15 Units / -32.39% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -20% ROI
- 0-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- 3-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera allowed a BABIP of .207 last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .177 (44-for-249) against Edward Cabrera last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (32/174) versus Edward Cabrera last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera threw off-speed pitches 69% of the time (837/1,215) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of 30% (59/196) versus MacKenzie Gore last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore walked 37 of 309 batters (12%) last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 24% (152/633) against MacKenzie Gore last season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — fourth Percentile.
49% of MacKenzie Gore’s strikeouts came on 95+ MPH fastballs last season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 18% — 93rd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 67-76 (.469) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are 39-5 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 12-81 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Marlins batted just .208 against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters had 63 extra-base hits out of 242 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters slugged just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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