- The Marlins are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Pérez
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Watch the game on MASN
The Miami Marlins (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Friday, September 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 67-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 75-60 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -115 | -175 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -105 | +145 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 72.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.20 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+11.60 Units / 73% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 39 games (+9.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
| Jake Irvin | 5.5 +140 | 5.5 -190 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games (+12.68 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.67 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+16.15 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 129 games (+11.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.79 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 59-75 against the Run Line (-31.2 Units / -17.55% ROI).
- 67-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -4.58% ROI
- 58-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.65 Units / -12.87% ROI
- 70-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.15 Units / 4.23% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 75-60 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 4.29% ROI).
- 62-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.15 Units / 16.81% ROI
- 62-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -7.31% ROI
- 66-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -0.99% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 17% (4/23) against Eury Perez — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (207/600) against Eury Perez this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Eury Perez has a strikeout rate of 68% (17 SO in 25 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
The last hit on a Eury Perez changeup was May 12nd. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Devin Williams has the longest active streak at 27.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft had an ERA of 8.37 (47.1 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 62% (98/159) against Graham Ashcraft in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (29/173) against Jake Irvin this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 14% (28/202) against Graham Ashcraft on elevated fastballs in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are 7-56 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Marlins are 13-134 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are 37-5 (.881) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Marlins are just 7-33 (.175) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 36-54 (.400) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 20-31 (.392) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Nationals are just 35-59 (.372) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 44-72 (.379) after a win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 80 extra-base hits out of 298 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 953 strikeouts in 5,061 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 300 strikeouts in 1,641 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .896 (957 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.104.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Lane Thomas (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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