Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 13

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Washington Nationals' Luis Garcia hits an RBI single against the Seattle Mariners to score CJ Abrams during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, June 26, 2023, in Seattle.
(AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 13, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Nationals are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
  • Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSFL

The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-145) on Friday, September 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.

This season, the Marlins are 55-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 81-65 ATS.

Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 4-6, 4.96 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 3-7, 3.81 ERA

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -185O 8 -105+120
Nationals -1.5 +150U 8 -115-145

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


Bet now on Marlins vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 38 games (+30.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+17.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+15.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+15.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.25 Units / 21% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jacob Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 13 games at home (+16.00 Units / 123% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+12.85 Units / 58% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Andres Chaparro has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games (+15.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 120 games (+14.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 69 away games (+14.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 away games (+9.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 52 games (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 138 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 72 games (+5.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 138 games (+4.75 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 69-78 against the Run Line (-30.11 Units / -15.72% ROI).

  • 55-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -11.15% ROI
  • 79-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.25 Units / 7.54% ROI
  • 61-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.85 Units / -15.44% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 81-65 against the Run Line (+4.93 Units / 2.56% ROI).

  • 65-81 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 0.97% ROI
  • 69-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -3.92% ROI
  • 69-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.82 Units / -4.83% ROI

Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Burger (MIA) 0.5 +240 0.5 -300
Connor Norby (MIA) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Joey Gallo (WAS) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700
CJ Abrams (WAS) 0.5 +575 0.5 -900
Andrés Chaparro (WAS) 0.5 +600 0.5 -900

Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Otto Lopez (MIA) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Jake Burger (MIA) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Jose Tena (WAS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
CJ Abrams (WAS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Luis Garcia (WAS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Burger (MIA) 0.5 +125 0.5 -160
Andrés Chaparro (WAS) 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
CJ Abrams (WAS) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jose Tena (WAS) 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
Keibert Ruiz (WAS) 0.5 +185 0.5 -250

Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Edward Cabrera (MIA) 5.5 -105 5.5 -120
DJ Herz (WAS) 6.5 +125 6.5 -160

Edward Cabrera has walked 109 of 791 batters (14%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Edward Cabrera has walked 32 of 195 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Edward Cabrera has walked 74 of 515 batters (14%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Edward Cabrera has walked 44 of 326 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Davidjohn Herz has not allowed a home run in any of the last 26.0 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 83.1.

Davidjohn Herz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 20.0 innings pitched — Brusdar Graterol has the longest active streak at 29.2.

Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (116/369) against Davidjohn Herz on fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitless in 15 AB’s against Davidjohn Herz this month (1 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins are just 32-13 (.711) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.

The Marlins are just 21-18 (.538) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.

The Marlins are just 5-36 (.122) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Marlins are just 17-30 (.362) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.

The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.

The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.

The Nationals are just 56-230 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (4,490 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .948 (2,131 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.

Nationals hitters have just 662 strikeouts in 3,472 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .302 (1,556 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.

Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.14 (697.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

The Marlins have allowed 5.84 runs per game (438/75) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
  • Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.