Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 14

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Washington Nationals' Lane Thomas runs up the first base line against the Houston Astros during the third inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 13, 2023, in Houston.
(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 14, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Nationals are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
  • Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSFL

The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-145) on Saturday, September 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.

This season, the Marlins are 55-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 81-65 ATS.

Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 2-3, 3.57 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 5-13, 5.62 ERA

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -175O 9 -120+120
Nationals -1.5 +145U 9 +100-145

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


Bet now on Marlins vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+7.40 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Valente Bellozo has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+6.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.60 Units / 290% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Patrick Corbin has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 69-78 against the Run Line (-30.11 Units / -15.72% ROI).

  • 55-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -11.15% ROI
  • 79-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.25 Units / 7.54% ROI
  • 61-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.85 Units / -15.44% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 81-65 against the Run Line (+4.93 Units / 2.56% ROI).

  • 65-81 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 0.97% ROI
  • 69-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -3.92% ROI
  • 69-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.82 Units / -4.83% ROI

Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Burger (MIA) 0.5 +280 0.5 -350
Joey Gallo (WAS) 0.5 +320 0.5 -400
Andrés Chaparro (WAS) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Connor Norby (MIA) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Dylan Crews (WAS) 0.5 +525 0.5 -750

Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Connor Norby (MIA) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Luis Garcia (WAS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Dylan Crews (WAS) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Andrés Chaparro (WAS) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
James Wood (WAS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Burger (MIA) 0.5 +105 0.5 -140
Andrés Chaparro (WAS) 0.5 +125 0.5 -160
Jose Tena (WAS) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Keibert Ruiz (WAS) 0.5 +140 0.5 -190
Joey Gallo (WAS) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200

Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Valente Bellozo (MIA) 3.5 -150 3.5 +115
Patrick Corbin (WAS) 4.5 -125 4.5 -105

Valente Bellozo has allowed a slugging percentage of .565 (13 Total Bases / 23 ABs) with two-strikes in his last two starts — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .222 — third Percentile.

Valente Bellozo has a strikeout rate of just 6% (3 SO in 47 PAs) this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.

Valente Bellozo has not struck out any hitters in 18 PA’s when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Valente Bellozo has not struck out any hitters in 18 PA’s when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .312 (236-for-756) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .233 (70-for-300) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — first Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .318 (163-for-513) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .309 (72-for-233) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins are just 32-13 (.711) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.

The Marlins are just 21-18 (.538) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.

The Marlins are just 7-6 (.538) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.

The Marlins are just 45-29 (.608) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.

The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.

The Nationals are just 35-57 (.380) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Nationals are just 57-230 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (4,518 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .219 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Marlins hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 941 total hits (just 28%) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

Nationals hitters have just 662 strikeouts in 3,477 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have just 1,059 strikeouts in 5,424 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .946 (2,136 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .974 (3,223 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.080.

Marlins pitchers have walked 506 of 5,705 batters (9%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.14 (697.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have allowed 5.14 runs per game (760/148) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in late innings since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
  • Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.