- The Marlins (59-85) are -125 favorites vs the Nationals (49-94)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (3-7), 3.80 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (7-9), 5.05 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Miami Marlins (-125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+105) on Friday, September 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -115 | -125 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -105 | +105 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Friday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Charles Leblanc has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+7.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 34 games (+17.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games at home (+14.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 30 games at home (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+11.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.25 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+1.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 74 of their last 130 games (+17.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 53 games at home (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+3.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (547/1,250) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.150 (56 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .693 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has walked 63 of 592 right-handed batters (11%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (509/1,052) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .698 (134 Total Bases / 192 ABs) on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed 36 home runs this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .608 (115 Total Bases / 189 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .409 — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (128 Total Bases / 216 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .383 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 58-69 (.457) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Marlins are 35-5 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Marlins are just 30-42 (.417) on the road this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Marlins are just 24-80 (.231) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 22-49 (.310) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 15-81 (.156) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 49-79 (.383) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .628 (2,909 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,909 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Marlins hitters have 805 strikeouts in 2,909 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 31% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 46 double plays in 368 opportunities (12%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,610 strikeouts in 7,823 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 6 of 123 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (14 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.44 (603.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Core, Day-to-Day
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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