- The Marlins are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+165) on Sunday, September 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 69-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 75-62 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 -120 | O 9 -105 | -200 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +100 | U 9 -115 | +165 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 71.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+13.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.00 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+11.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jacob Young | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jacob Young | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| C.J. Abrams | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jacob Young | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
| Josiah Gray | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+10.53 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.02 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.50 Units / 55% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 131 games (+8.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.64 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.45 Units / 19% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 61-75 against the Run Line (-28.95 Units / -16.1% ROI).
- 69-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.6 Units / -3.32% ROI
- 60-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.65 Units / -11.32% ROI
- 70-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 2.67% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 75-62 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 2.64% ROI).
- 62-75 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.15 Units / 15.13% ROI
- 64-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.85 Units / -5.87% ROI
- 66-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -2.45% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (920/1,286) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (722/1,286) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
55% of Sandy Alcantara’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,947/2,706) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
23 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed an OBP of .310 (329 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — second Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 71 of 608 batters (12%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed an OPS of .645 (329 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .501 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are 31-12 (.721) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
The Marlins are 83-13 (.865) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Marlins are just 18-71 (.202) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are 19-2 (.905) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 35-61 (.365) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Nationals are just 36-56 (.391) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Nationals are just 55-94 (.369) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 24-41 (.369) after a road win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 80 extra-base hits out of 304 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.71 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Marlins hitters have drawn 70 walks in 1,148 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters have just 970 strikeouts in 5,143 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .901 (972 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.103.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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