- The Orioles are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-135) on Friday, July 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Marlins vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 53-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 54-35 ATS.
Marlins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -105 | +115 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -115 | -135 |
Marlins vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 53.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+13.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+8.20 Units / 83% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.50 Units / 69% ROI)
Orioles vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Orioles vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Orioles vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 81 games (+16.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 30 away games (+5.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.95 Units / 57% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 76 games (+18.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 86 games (+18.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.50 Units / 61% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 45-47 against the Run Line (-8.95 Units / -7.45% ROI).
- 53-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.45 Units / 11.78% ROI
- 43-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -7.27% ROI
- 46-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -1.38% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 54-35 against the Run Line (+17.8 Units / 15.6% ROI).
- 54-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.45 Units / 15.6% ROI
- 45-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.55 Units / 4.67% ROI
- 37-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -12.79% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 70% (342/487) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (576/803) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (454/803) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has thrown his changeup 34% of the time (115/336) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .472 (25-for-53) against Dean Kremer on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .298 (54-for-181) against Dean Kremer’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .280 (109-for-389) against Dean Kremer this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 11th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 15% (8/54) against Eduardo Rodriguez in late innings in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Marlins are 5-33 (.132) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Marlins are just 84-20 (.808) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Marlins are 11-111 (.090) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Orioles are 100-6 (.943) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Orioles are 11-5 (.688) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Orioles are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Orioles are 67-46 (.593) after a loss since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 52 extra-base hits out of 208 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Marlins are batting .312 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 74 extra-base hits out of 315 total hits (just 23%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging .432 on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Orioles on 48% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.. *
The Orioles are 152-97 (.608) against the run line (13.3% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Orioles hitters are averaging 3.99 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .177 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Cionel Pérez (Orioles): Forearm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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