- The Orioles are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Miami Marlins (+100) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-120) on Saturday, July 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Marlins vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 53-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 55-35 ATS.
Marlins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -110 | +100 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -110 | -120 |
Marlins vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 53.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+9.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+6.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Braxton Garrett has hit the Earned Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.50 Units / 69% ROI)
- Tyler Wells has hit the Strikeouts Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 61% ROI)
Orioles vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Orioles vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Orioles vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 82 games (+15.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 away games (+4.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 77 games (+20.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 87 games (+19.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+6.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 45-48 against the Run Line (-10.65 Units / -8.74% ROI).
- 53-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.45 Units / 10.81% ROI
- 43-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.5 Units / -8.31% ROI
- 47-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -0.39% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 55-35 against the Run Line (+19.35 Units / 16.81% ROI).
- 55-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.45 Units / 16.29% ROI
- 45-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.4 Units / 3.45% ROI
- 38-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.6 Units / -11.65% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (43/378 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 10 of 289 right-handed batters (4%) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 92nd Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has a strike rate of 68% (951/1,402) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 90th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 15 of 378 batters (4%) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .212 (42-for-198) against Kyle Gibson with two-strikes this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — eighth Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 61% (279/455) in two strike counts this season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 12th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 62% (1,091/1,759) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .196 (11-for-56) against Kyle Gibson on low fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — 82nd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Marlins are just 12-58 (.171) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Marlins are just 84-20 (.808) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Marlins are 11-112 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are just 93-14 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Orioles are 53-25 (.679) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Orioles are 101-6 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Orioles are 20-7 (.741) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Orioles are 54-35 (.607) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting .312 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of .362 (736 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 52 extra-base hits out of 208 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .400 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Orioles hitters are slugging .683 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 61% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Orioles are batting .254 with two outs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Cionel Pérez (Orioles): Forearm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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