- The Orioles are -165 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Steven Okert
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-175) on Sunday, July 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Marlins vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 53-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 55-36 ATS.
Marlins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 +100 | +145 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -120 | -175 |
Marlins vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 73.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+15.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Tyler Wells has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Orioles vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Orioles vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 1.5 +130 | 1.5 -165 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Orioles vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 61 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 83 games (+14.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+10.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 88 games (+20.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 78 games (+19.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 46-48 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -7.79% ROI).
- 53-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.45 Units / 9.85% ROI
- 44-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.5 Units / -7.26% ROI
- 47-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -1.45% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 55-36 against the Run Line (+18.35 Units / 15.81% ROI).
- 56-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.45 Units / 16.99% ROI
- 46-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 4.41% ROI
- 38-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -12.61% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
21 of Steven Okert’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since last season — most among in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Steven Okert has thrown his slider 71% of the time (235/330) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Steven Okert has thrown his slider 71% of the time (235/330) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Steven Okert has struck out 42% (21/50) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 6.57 (89.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 42% (23/55) against Kyle Bradish when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .115 (6-for-52) against Kyle Bradish over the last 30 days (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has walked 1 of 70 batters (1%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Marlins are just 12-58 (.171) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Marlins are 32-4 (.889) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Marlins are 5-35 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are just 93-14 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Orioles are 21-96 (.179) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Orioles are 11-5 (.688) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Orioles are 16-12 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 20-7 (.741) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 52 extra-base hits out of 208 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Marlins are batting .312 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of .362 (736 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .404 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
The Orioles are batting .254 with two outs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Orioles are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Orioles on 48% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.. *
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 74 double plays in 583 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Orioles have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Orioles vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Quad, Day-to-Day
- Cionel Pérez (Orioles): Forearm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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