- The Padres are -190 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Miami Marlins (+155) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-190) on Tuesday, August 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Marlins vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 64-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 61-65 ATS.
Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | O 7.5 -110 | +155 |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | U 7.5 -110 | -190 |
Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 74.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+15.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+12.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 40 games (+21.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+18.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 41 games (+18.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 38 games (+17.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+15.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Padres vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Blake Snell | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +120 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+6.84 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 93 games (+1.60 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 119 games (+15.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 116 games (+13.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+7.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games at home (+4.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 72 games (+3.00 Units / 3% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 57-69 against the Run Line (-25.8 Units / -15.37% ROI).
- 64-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -2.28% ROI
- 56-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -10.42% ROI
- 64-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 1.68% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 61-65 against the Run Line (-9.15 Units / -5.98% ROI).
- 60-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.15 Units / -16.7% ROI
- 50-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -25 Units / -17.81% ROI
- 67-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.5 Units / 9.11% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .625 (40 Total Bases / 64 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (351/1,130) against Jesus Luzardo this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .595 (25 Total Bases / 42 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .402 — fifth Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed three-ball counts to 23% of batters they faced (177/786 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 0 Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 58% (1,426/2,452) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 62 of 468 right-handed batters (13%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 78 of 568 batters (14%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (24/133) against Blake Snell on non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are 7-53 (.117) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 7-32 (.179) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Marlins are just 31-69 (.310) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Marlins are just 9-23 (.281) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-9 (.182) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Padres are 49-9 (.845) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Padres are just 11-57 (.162) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 78 extra-base hits out of 285 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .262 (62 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .753.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 382 walks in 3,430 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .400 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Padres are batting just .109 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers over the last 30 days (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,929 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 46% of their games since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Rib, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Luis Arraez (Marlins): Stomach, Day-to-Day
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