- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Wednesday, August 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Marlins vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 65-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 61-66 ATS.
Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -105 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -115 | -130 |
Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 52.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+12.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 41 games (+23.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 39 games (+19.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 42 games (+19.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 43 games (+17.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+16.15 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Padres vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Padres vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Seth Lugo | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+7.84 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 94 games (+2.95 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 120 games (+16.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 117 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 41 games at home (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.32 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 73 games (+1.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 58-69 against the Run Line (-24.8 Units / -14.65% ROI).
- 65-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -1.29% ROI
- 56-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.2 Units / -11.07% ROI
- 65-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.3 Units / 2.39% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 61-66 against the Run Line (-10.15 Units / -6.59% ROI).
- 60-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.8 Units / -17.43% ROI
- 50-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -26 Units / -18.39% ROI
- 68-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.5 Units / 9.75% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (833/1,157) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (653/1,157) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .349 (38-for-109) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of 39% (208/530) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
Seth Lugo has an average spin rate of 3229.7 RPM on curveballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 2528.6 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (380/924) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (592/1,366) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 16-70 (.186) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Marlins are 7-53 (.117) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 19-49 (.279) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Marlins are 13-131 (.090) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are just 2-9 (.182) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .439.
The Padres are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 11-104 (.096) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Padres are just 11-58 (.159) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 79 extra-base hits out of 291 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 160 extra-base hits out of 540 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .214 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters are slugging just .399 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Padres hitters have drawn 383 walks in 3,434 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .384 at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,040 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 40% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Rib, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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