- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH+
The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 4-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 4-6 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 +100 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -120 | -150 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jerar Encarnacion has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+1.60 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.25 Units / 42% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +110 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 29% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 3-8 against the Run Line (-8.4 Units / -51.06% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -26.75% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -3.75% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -4.92% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-6 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -27.94% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -22.66% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -4% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -1.86% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (35/87) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .042 (1 Total Bases / 24 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .252 — 96th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 53% of Jesus Luzardo’s pitches (285/534) with two-strikes in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 31% (15 SO in 48 PAs) this season — 12th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 89th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola had a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (566/811) in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio was 8.0 (241/30) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 73% (65/89) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola struck out 52 batters on three pitches in 2022 — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
keys to the game – away
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 15-62 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies were 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies were 45-19 (.703) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (3,083 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .347 against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (1,387 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters had an OPS of just .597 (1,316 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
35% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .535 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .797 (241 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 14 of 96 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 8.18 (33.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.63.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 46 of 379 batters (12%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .261 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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