- The Phillies are -210 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: FDFL | NSPA
The Miami Marlins (+170) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-210) on Friday, April 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 8-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 11-8 ATS.
Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 2-0, 4.70 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 1-1, 4.07 ERA
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -130 | O 7.5 -110 | +170 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -110 | -210 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 64.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Mervis has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+18.90 Units / 270% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+11.25 Units / 90% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.70 Units / 72% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.15 Units / 88% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 80% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+11.50 Units / 115% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games at home (+8.05 Units / 112% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 60% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 86 of their last 161 games (+12.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 away games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 80 away games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 80 games at home (+14.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 80 games at home (+8.63 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 80 games at home (+6.25 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 80 games at home (+3.45 Units / 4% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 8-10 against the Run Line (-3.6 Units / -16.22% ROI).
- 8-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 3.2% ROI
- 11-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 14.74% ROI
- 7-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -25.19% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 11-8 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 3.89% ROI).
- 11-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 5.56% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -19.43% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 11.59% ROI
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of 56% (733/1,301) against Sandy Alcantara in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 71% (560/787) in two strike counts in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (19/63) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 80% (20/25) against Sandy Alcantara’s fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed a .512 SLG vs right-handed batters this season — eighth worst among qualified SPs– ninth Percentile. He allowed a SLG of just .233 vs right-handed batters last season — best among qualified SPs– 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .161 (56-for-348) against Zack Wheeler in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 63% of the time (47/75) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .110 (51-for-463) against Zack Wheeler with two-strikes since last season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins are just 50-12 (.806) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 3-6 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Phillies are just 14-22 (.389) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 33-27 (.550) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Marlins (27th best runs scored) today.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins are just 18-52 (.257) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .457.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .343 (2,161 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .780 (2,161 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.29 (873.1 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins have allowed 5.97 runs per game (561/94) at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 56% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Phillies won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies pitchers have picked-off 5 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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