- The Phillies (61-48) are -125 favorites vs the Marlins (49-60)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (10-4), 1.87 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (6-8), 4.02 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-125) on Wednesday, August 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 49-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 58-51 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -200 | O 7 +100 | +105 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -120 | -125 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 22 games (+16.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 39 games at home (+13.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 32 games at home (+13.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+12.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.25 Units / 31% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Syndergaard | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -175 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 away games (+4.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 59 games (+18.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 104 games (+15.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+14.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 31 games at home (+6.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 48-61 against the Run Line (-22.1 Units / -15.23% ROI).
- 49-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.2 Units / -12.24% ROI
- 50-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.4 Units / -8.59% ROI
- 55-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.42% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 58-51 against the Run Line (+7.1 Units / 5.36% ROI).
- 61-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 3.38% ROI
- 55-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 1.96% ROI
- 48-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.2 Units / -10.18% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (28/172) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (233/418) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (101/172) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .195 (108-for-555) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 93rd Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 22 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed 27 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 64% (16/25) against Noah Syndergaard on the first pitch of at-bats this month (1 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 3-49 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Marlins are just 23-28 (.451) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Marlins are 14-2 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Marlins are just 8-26 (.235) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 10-36 (.217) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Phillies are 12-36 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Phillies are 50-17 (.746) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Phillies are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (840 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .636 (2,536 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have 701 strikeouts in 2,536 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,536 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .795 against LHP this month (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Phillies hitters are slugging .676 at home over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.227 (44 PA’s) against LHP this month (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .681.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .432 (44 PA’s) against LHP this month (4 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .299.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 153 of 2,394 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 44% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
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