Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 11, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (77-33) are favorites vs the (77-33)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera (2-1), 2.61 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (7-4), 4.35 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Miami Marlins () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Thursday, August 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 49-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 58-52 ATS.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins O
Phillies U

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 70.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+17.05 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+13.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 40 games at home (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 33 games at home (+11.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 28 games (+10.90 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+10.55 Units / 14% ROI)

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Bryson Stott 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Darick Hall 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Jean Segura 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Bryson Stott 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Darick Hall 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Jean Segura 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Bryson Stott 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Darick Hall 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Jean Segura 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +135 0.5 -200

Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Gibson 4.5 -145 4.5 +105
Edward Cabrera 5.5 +110 5.5 -160
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 59 away games (+8.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+3.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+0.75 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 60 games (+19.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 105 games (+14.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+13.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 45 games (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 38% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 49-61 against the Run Line (-21.1 Units / -14.34% ROI).

  • 49-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.2 Units / -12.9% ROI
  • 50-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.5 Units / -9.41% ROI
  • 56-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.24% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 58-52 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 4.57% ROI).

  • 62-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 4.01% ROI
  • 55-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 1.03% ROI
  • 49-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -9.26% ROI

Opponents are hitless in 14 AB’s against Edward Cabrera this month (1 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 51% (18/35) against Edward Cabrera this month (1 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Edward Cabrera has allowed a slugging percentage of .000 (0 TB / 14 ABs) this month (1 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .407 — 100th Percentile.

Edward Cabrera has a strikeout rate of 47% (8 SO in 17 PAs) this month (1 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 7% (4 SO in 60 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (10th lowest)– 16th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (sixth highest among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (280/479) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .176 (12-for-68) against Kyle Gibson on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .255 — 95th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 8-26 (.235) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.

The Marlins are just 38-5 (.884) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Marlins are 14-2 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Marlins are just 3-49 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 13-36 (.265) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Phillies are 11-36 (.234) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Phillies are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 48-2 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .912.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .635 (2,539 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .348 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Marlins hitters have 701 strikeouts in 2,539 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,539 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Phillies hitters are slugging .795 against LHP this month (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.227 (44 PA’s) against LHP this month (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .690.

Phillies hitters are slugging .659 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .432 (44 PA’s) against LHP this month (4 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .301.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 61 of 978 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .219.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.