• The Phillies are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: MATV | NSPA

The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-125) on August 19, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 pm in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Marlins are 64-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 50-76 ATS.

Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 13-7, 3.46 ERA
• Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 4-9, 5.35 ERA

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Marlins vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+18.55 Units / 60% ROI)
• Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+16.10 Units / 161% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Joe Mack has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.50 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.95 Units / 55% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+12.35 Units / 60% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.55 Units / 41% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+6.30 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+4.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 41% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+8.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+4.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.70 Units / 70% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 65-60 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -2.04% ROI).

• 64-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 1.08% ROI
• 63-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.35 Units / -3.1% ROI
• 61-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -5.81% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 50-76 against the Run Line (-32.25 Units / -21.64% ROI).

• 69-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -3.44% ROI
• 57-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.15 Units / -8.68% ROI
• 63-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 0.5% ROI

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Marlins were just 62-100 (.383) in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins were just 16-44 (.267) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies were 15-45 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Phillies were 69-5 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Phillies were 51-9 (.850) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .750.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .283 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Marlins have a winning percentage of 60% at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 39% of their swings in play in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters are slugging .728 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB.

Phillies hitters have 116 extra-base hits out of 231 total hits (50%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .468 (2,563 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .233 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have not picked-off any runners from first base this season — fewest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 207 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 63% this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH this season (3,053 balls in play) — best in MLB

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .279 against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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