- The Phillies (60-48) are -250 favorites vs the Marlins (49-59)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (2-5), 3.87 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (10-5), 2.68 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Miami Marlins (+195) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-250) on Tuesday, August 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 49-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 57-51 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -105 | O 7.5 -110 | +195 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -115 | U 7.5 -110 | -250 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 52.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Lewin Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+14.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+12.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 38 games at home (+12.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 31 games at home (+12.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+10.00 Units / 30% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -600 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +105 |
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 57 away games (+8.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+7.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 18 away games (+0.10 Units / 0% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 58 games (+17.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 103 games (+14.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+13.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+7.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.25 Units / 50% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 48-60 against the Run Line (-21 Units / -14.58% ROI).
- 49-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.2 Units / -11.58% ROI
- 50-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -7.75% ROI
- 54-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.42% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 57-51 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 4.64% ROI).
- 60-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 2.76% ROI
- 55-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 2.9% ROI
- 47-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -11.12% ROI
Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 47% (87/186) against Braxton Garrett on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (398/948) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 37% (178/485) against Braxton Garrett this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has allowed a slugging percentage of .385 (35 Total Bases / 91 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .305 — ninth Percentile.
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,529/3,463) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.4 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (413 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 85.4
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (383/882) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.9 MPH against his fastballs since the start of last season (548 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 90.4
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are 14-2 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Marlins are just 23-28 (.451) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
The Marlins are just 8-25 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 12-36 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Phillies are 10-36 (.217) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Phillies are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 19-3 (.864) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (836 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .636 (2,532 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Marlins hitters have 699 strikeouts in 2,532 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .349 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .633 at home over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Phillies are batting .349 with runners on base over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Phillies are 12-36 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Phillies hitters are slugging .424 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 60 of 960 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 152 of 2,385 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies have won 44% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
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