Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 13, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (30-30) are -130 favorites vs the Marlins (27-31)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (6-2), 1.61 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (4-4), 3.49 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-130) on Monday, June 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 27-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 31-29 ATS.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -190O 7.5 -115+105
Phillies -1.5 +155U 7.5 -105-130

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s matchup with 73.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+12.70 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+12.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+10.20 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.25 Units / 32% ROI)

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 290 0.5 -450
Bryson Stott 0.5 675 0.5 -2500
Didi Gregorius 0.5 675 0.5 -2000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 575 0.5 -1400
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 270 0.5 -450

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryson Stott 0.5 -150 0.5 105
Didi Gregorius 0.5 -190 0.5 135
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -200 0.5 145
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -185 0.5 125
Mickey Moniak 0.5 -110 0.5 -125

Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 145 0.5 -200
Bryson Stott 0.5 240 0.5 -375
Didi Gregorius 0.5 180 0.5 -275
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 190 0.5 -275
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 165 0.5 -250

Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sandy Alcantara 6.5 110 6.5 -155
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.70 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 55 games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games (+9.20 Units / 85% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 31% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 31-27 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 3.29% ROI).

  • 27-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -9.78% ROI
  • 30-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 0.77% ROI
  • 27-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -8.75% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 31-29 against the Run Line (+1.8 Units / 2.44% ROI).

  • 30-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -6.84% ROI
  • 35-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.7 Units / 14.61% ROI
  • 23-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.25 Units / -23.19% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (57/356) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 10% (9/90) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .190 (55-for-290) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 94th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .120 (11 Total Bases / 92 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 96th Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of just .037 (1 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .431 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 32% (13 SO in 41 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .037 (1-for-27) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .279 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 4 of 153 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 95th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .073.

The Marlins are just 2-20 (.091) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

The Marlins are just 12-17 (.414) on the road this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.

The Marlins are just 1-24 (.040) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 5-23 (.179) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .073.

The Phillies are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .098.

The Phillies are just 19-48 (.284) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .356.

The Phillies are just 11-17 (.393) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins hitters have 615 strikeouts in 2,212 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .641 (2,212 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .280 (516 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Marlins hitters have 149 strikeouts in 516 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .456 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,060 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .690.

The Phillies are batting .391 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.

Phillies hitters have 638 strikeouts in 2,633 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Marlins have won just 16% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .202 against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .279 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D10
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): COVID, D10
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Pablo López (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.