- The – (37-23) are favorites vs the – (37-23)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (3-5), 5.58 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin (2-4), 3.76 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Miami Marlins () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Tuesday, June 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 27-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 31-30 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 59.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+6.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 away games (+5.10 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+6.30 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
| Trevor Rogers | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.75 Units / 66% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 32-27 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 4.48% ROI).
- 27-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -11.04% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.76% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -7.04% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 31-30 against the Run Line (+0.8 Units / 1.07% ROI).
- 31-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.5 Units / -5.51% ROI
- 35-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.7 Units / 12.91% ROI
- 24-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.25 Units / -21.28% ROI
Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (64/225) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown low pitches 60% of the time (135/225) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .759 (66 Total Bases / 87 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .537 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .476 (10-for-21) against Trevor Rogers on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .333 — seventh Percentile.
Zachary Eflin: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .000 (0 GB hits out of 15 GBs) against Zach Eflin with runners in scoring position this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .213 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .536 (15-for-28) against Zach Eflin on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .333 — second Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 29 of 670 batters (4%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .367 (22-for-60) against Zach Eflin this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Marlins are just 9-28 (.243) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Marlins are just 1-24 (.040) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Marlins are just 2-20 (.091) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 6-23 (.207) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Phillies are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Phillies are just 11-17 (.393) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 115-13 (.898) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 615 strikeouts in 2,212 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .641 (2,212 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Marlins hitters have 149 strikeouts in 516 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,060 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Phillies hitters are slugging .456 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
The Phillies are batting .393 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Phillies hitters have put just 31% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Marlins have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .280 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed 98 barreled balls this season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Pablo López (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
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