Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 15, 2022, 10:44 AM
  • The Phillies (31-31) are -185 favorites vs the Marlins (28-32)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: (-), ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (4-2), 4.40 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Wednesday, June 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 28-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 31-31 ATS.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -125O 9.5 -115+150
Phillies -1.5 +105U 9.5 -105-185

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 76.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+7.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.35 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+7.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+6.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Avisail Garcia 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
    Garrett Cooper 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
    Jacob Stallings 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
    Jazz Chisholm 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
    Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +320 0.5 -550

    Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Avisail Garcia 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
    Garrett Cooper 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
    Jacob Stallings 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
    Jazz Chisholm 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
    Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

    Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Avisail Garcia 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
    Garrett Cooper 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
    Jacob Stallings 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
    Jazz Chisholm 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
    Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

    Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Kyle Gibson 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+7.20 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-27 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 5.62% ROI).

    • 28-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -9.17% ROI
    • 31-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 0.75% ROI
    • 28-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -8.52% ROI

    Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 31-31 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -0.26% ROI).

    • 31-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -7.16% ROI
    • 36-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.7 Units / 14.15% ROI
    • 24-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.3 Units / -22.5% ROI

    Pablo Lopez has induced opposing hitters to ground into 6 double plays in 23 opportunities (26%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting just .121 (4-for-33) against Pablo Lopez on low fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .276 — 93rd Percentile.

    Pablo Lopez has struck out 32% (40/127) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.

    Pablo Lopez has allowed a slugging percentage of .818 (18 Total Bases / 22 ABs) vs left-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .370 — first Percentile.

    Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Kyle Gibson has struck out just 14% (17/125) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 53% (50/94) against Kyle Gibson this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 88th Percentile.

    Kyle Gibson has located his fastball up for a strike just 48% (251/521) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.

    Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (172/521) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.

    Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

    The Marlins are just 6-17 (.261) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

    The Marlins are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.

    The Marlins are just 13-18 (.419) on the road this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.

    The Marlins are just 2-24 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

    Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

    The Phillies are 6-23 (.207) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .074.

    The Phillies are just 113-18 (.863) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

    The Phillies are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.

    The Phillies are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

    Marlins hitters have 617 strikeouts in 2,215 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Marlins hitters have 151 strikeouts in 519 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

    Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .591 (519 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.

    Phillies hitters are slugging .456 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.

    Phillies hitters have an OPS of .769 (739 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

    Phillies hitters have 643 strikeouts in 2,672 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Phillies hitters are slugging .439 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

    Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

    The Marlins have won just 16% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    The Marlins have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .252 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .276 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .214.

    The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH since the start of last season (5,455 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

    Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Pablo López (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.