• The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: MATV | NSPA

The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-175) on June 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Marlins are 36-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 26-45 ATS.

Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Tyler Phillips 1-1, 1.86 ERA
• Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 5-4, 4.35 ERA

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Marlins vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Esteury Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+17.00 Units / 340% ROI)
• Esteury Ruiz has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.35 Units / 41% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.90 Units / 56% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.80 Units / 64% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+18.00 Units / 450% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+13.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+13.45 Units / 66% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 34% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 away games (+15.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+5.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+3.70 Units / 18% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+5.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 40% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 36-36 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -4.66% ROI).

• 36-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 0.99% ROI
• 40-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 8.42% ROI
• 30-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -17.22% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 26-45 against the Run Line (-22.05 Units / -26.22% ROI).

• 39-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -2.73% ROI
• 30-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.85 Units / -17.43% ROI
• 40-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.4 Units / 9.37% ROI

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are 7-2 (.778) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are just 24-56 (.300) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .360.

The Marlins were just 60-86 (.411) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 7-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .781.

The Phillies are 30-1 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .894.

The Phillies are 17-5 (.773) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .646.

The Phillies are 25-2 (.926) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .263 (1,393 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .483 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .274 (1,305 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .209 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .621 (1,305 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .221 (1,444 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 63% this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 118 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 5th most in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 1.07 runs per game (78/73) in late innings this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (1,776 batted balls) this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .287 against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (1,776 balls in play) — best in MLB

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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