- The – are favorites vs the –
- Marlins starting pitcher: Steven Okert
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Sunday, September 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 0-0 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 76.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Marlins vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+13.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+12.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+16.40 Units / 117% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+15.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+14.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+14.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+13.05 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 5.5 +135 | 5.5 -175 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+8.92 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.65 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.20 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+3.46 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+3.45 Units / 15% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
25 of Steven Okert’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since last season — most among in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
25 of Steven Okert’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since last season — tied for most among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw allowed an OPS of just .658 (82 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.038 — 99th Percentile.
25 of Steven Okert’s 98 breaking pitch strikeouts (26%) have been backdoor since last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (155/257) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 61% (2,126/3,485) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (630/1,166) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (883/1,664) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 185 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are 7-58 (.108) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Marlins are just 19-71 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are 13-136 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are just 115-9 (.927) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Phillies are 27-107 (.201) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 18-9 (.667) after a home loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Phillies are 20-19 (.513) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 88 extra-base hits out of 324 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .330 (3,746 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Phillies hitters are slugging .424 against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Phillies are batting .264 at home since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 183 of 2,686 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (3,462 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
Bet now on Marlins vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
