Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 6

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 06, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (73-61) are -225 favorites vs the Marlins (55-78)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (3-6), 3.44 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (9-11), 3.42 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 55-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-64 ATS.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -120O 7 -120+180
Phillies -1.5 +100U 7 +100-225

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.55 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 51 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Bryce Harper 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Jean Segura 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +350 0.5 -650

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Bryce Harper 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Jean Segura 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -165 0.5 +115

Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Bryce Harper 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jean Segura 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 7.5 +110 7.5 -155
Jesus Luzardo 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+14.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games (+1.20 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 75 of their last 129 games (+17.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+2.05 Units / 11% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 60-71 against the Run Line (-21.9 Units / -12.64% ROI).

  • 55-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.75 Units / -15.92% ROI
  • 57-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.6 Units / -12.13% ROI
  • 68-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 3.89% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-64 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.31% ROI).

  • 72-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 0.45% ROI
  • 67-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 1.58% ROI
  • 59-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -9.85% ROI

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .783 (36 Total Bases / 46 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .397 — first Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has not allowed a home run in any of the last 19.2 innings he’s appeared — Zac Gallen has the longest active streak at 59.1.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.186 (53 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .694 — first Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has walked 21 of 162 batters (13%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 9% — seventh Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has walked 22 of 673 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 8.6 (190/22) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.5 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 330 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 13.9 (97/7) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.9 — 100th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 24-73 (.247) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.

The Marlins are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are just 44-7 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 34-31 (.523) on the road this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .262 (1,109 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Marlins hitters have 783 strikeouts in 2,805 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Marlins are batting just .198 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Phillies hitters are slugging .515 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .441.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .779 (1,486 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Phillies are batting .172 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .158.

The Phillies are batting .284 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (3,241 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.