- The Phillies (73-61) are -225 favorites vs the Marlins (55-78)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (3-6), 3.44 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (9-11), 3.42 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 55-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-64 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -120 | O 7 -120 | +180 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +100 | U 7 +100 | -225 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.55 Units / 86% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 51 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -155 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+14.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games (+1.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 75 of their last 129 games (+17.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+2.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 60-71 against the Run Line (-21.9 Units / -12.64% ROI).
- 55-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.75 Units / -15.92% ROI
- 57-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.6 Units / -12.13% ROI
- 68-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 3.89% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-64 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.31% ROI).
- 72-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 0.45% ROI
- 67-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 1.58% ROI
- 59-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -9.85% ROI
Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .783 (36 Total Bases / 46 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .397 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has not allowed a home run in any of the last 19.2 innings he’s appeared — Zac Gallen has the longest active streak at 59.1.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.186 (53 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .694 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has walked 21 of 162 batters (13%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 9% — seventh Percentile.
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has walked 22 of 673 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 8.6 (190/22) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.5 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 330 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 13.9 (97/7) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.9 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 24-73 (.247) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
The Marlins are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 44-7 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 34-31 (.523) on the road this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .262 (1,109 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have 783 strikeouts in 2,805 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Marlins are batting just .198 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .515 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .779 (1,486 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Phillies are batting .172 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .158.
The Phillies are batting .284 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (3,241 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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