- The Phillies (75-61) are -135 favorites vs the Marlins (55-80)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (12-7), 2.36 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (9-6), 4.47 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on Thursday, September 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 55-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-66 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Marlins | +1.5 -190 | O 7 -105 | +115 |
Phillies | -1.5 +155 | U 7 -115 | -135 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.55 Units / 86% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 51 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alec Bohm | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
Bryce Harper | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Bryson Stott | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alec Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Bryson Stott | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alec Bohm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Bryson Stott | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -115 |
Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 26 games (+1.35 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 76 of their last 131 games (+17.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+2.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+0.80 Units / 4% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 62-71 against the Run Line (-19.9 Units / -11.31% ROI).
- 55-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.75 Units / -16.98% ROI
- 57-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.65 Units / -13.35% ROI
- 70-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.6 Units / 5.19% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-66 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -0.99% ROI).
- 74-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 1.47% ROI
- 67-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 0.17% ROI
- 61-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -8.33% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (100/519) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (843/1,181) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 56% (127/225) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (39/225) against Sandy Alcantara this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (seventh lowest)– 13th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (tied for fourth highest among qualified SPs)– 94th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (347/594) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (27/155) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has allowed an OBP of .395 (114 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — fourth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 6-46 (.115) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Marlins are just 6-60 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Marlins are just 7-34 (.171) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies are 41-30 (.577) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Phillies are 32-11 (.744) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .263 (1,139 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have 788 strikeouts in 2,835 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .622 (2,835 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .573 (1,139 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,538 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .440.
The Phillies are batting .173 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .158.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (3,241 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (7,167 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (3,241 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.