Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 8

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 08, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Phillies are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Pérez
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-145) on Friday, September 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Marlins are 72-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 61-78 ATS.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -165O 9 -120+120
Phillies -1.5 +135U 9 +100-145

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 63.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+13.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.20 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.80 Units / 51% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 37 of his last 47 games (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+15.85 Units / 132% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+14.20 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.05 Units / 43% ROI)

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Jazz Chisholm 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Nick Fortes 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jake Burger 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Jazz Chisholm 0.5 -165 0.5 +125
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Nick Fortes 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Jake Burger 0.5 -250 0.5 +185

Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Jazz Chisholm 0.5 +195 0.5 -250
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Nick Fortes 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Jake Burger 0.5 +160 0.5 -225

Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cristopher Sanchez 4.5 -115 4.5 -110
Eury Perez 5.5 -145 5.5 +110
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+7.78 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.45 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+8.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+7.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+4.94 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+4.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.25 Units / 20% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 64-76 against the Run Line (-27.5 Units / -14.84% ROI).

  • 72-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -1.81% ROI
  • 64-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -8.36% ROI
  • 70-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.39% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 61-78 against the Run Line (-24.5 Units / -14.2% ROI).

  • 77-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -3.19% ROI
  • 59-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.85 Units / -10.41% ROI
  • 68-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.3 Units / 2.18% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .133 (21-for-158) against Eury Perez’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 50% (168/338) against Eury Perez on non-fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.

Eury Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .825 (33 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .434 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (225/643) against Eury Perez this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (126/216) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.

Cristopher Sanchez has induced opposing hitters to ground into 11 double plays in 52 opportunities (21%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 73% (44/60) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (7/60) against Cristopher Sanchez on changeups this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are 13-135 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Marlins are 7-57 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .054.

The Marlins are just 19-71 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.

The Marlins are just 107-16 (.870) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 27-107 (.201) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .131.

The Phillies are 45-31 (.592) after a win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.

The Phillies are 19-108 (.150) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.

The Phillies are 11-7 (.611) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .434.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .791 (1,635 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .744.

Phillies hitters are slugging .447 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .977 (549 PA’s) at home over the last 30 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .756.

Phillies hitters are slugging .441 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,436 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 26th hardest ball in play hit (118.6 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.0).

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
  • Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
  • Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.