- The Phillies are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Pérez
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-145) on Friday, September 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 72-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 61-78 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -120 | +120 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 9 +100 | -145 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 63.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Marlins vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+13.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.80 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 37 of his last 47 games (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+15.85 Units / 132% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+14.20 Units / 71% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.05 Units / 43% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Eury Perez | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+7.78 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 56% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+8.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+7.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+4.94 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+4.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.25 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 64-76 against the Run Line (-27.5 Units / -14.84% ROI).
- 72-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -1.81% ROI
- 64-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -8.36% ROI
- 70-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.39% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 61-78 against the Run Line (-24.5 Units / -14.2% ROI).
- 77-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -3.19% ROI
- 59-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.85 Units / -10.41% ROI
- 68-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.3 Units / 2.18% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .133 (21-for-158) against Eury Perez’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 50% (168/338) against Eury Perez on non-fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Eury Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .825 (33 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .434 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (225/643) against Eury Perez this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (126/216) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has induced opposing hitters to ground into 11 double plays in 52 opportunities (21%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 73% (44/60) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (7/60) against Cristopher Sanchez on changeups this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are 13-135 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are 7-57 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Marlins are just 19-71 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are just 107-16 (.870) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 27-107 (.201) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Phillies are 45-31 (.592) after a win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Phillies are 19-108 (.150) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Phillies are 11-7 (.611) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .791 (1,635 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .744.
Phillies hitters are slugging .447 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .977 (549 PA’s) at home over the last 30 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .756.
Phillies hitters are slugging .441 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,436 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 26th hardest ball in play hit (118.6 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.0).
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
Bet now on Marlins vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
