Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 8

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 08, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (75-61) are -135 favorites vs the Marlins (55-80)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (12-7), 2.36 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (9-6), 4.47 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on Thursday, September 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 55-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-66 ATS.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -190O 7 -105+115
Phillies -1.5 +155U 7 -115-135

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.55 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 51 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Bryce Harper 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Bryson Stott 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Brandon Marsh 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Bryce Harper 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Bryson Stott 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
Bryce Harper 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Bryson Stott 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Gibson 4.5 -125 4.5 -115
Sandy Alcantara 5.5 -140 5.5 +100
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 26 games (+1.35 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 76 of their last 131 games (+17.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+2.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+0.80 Units / 4% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 62-71 against the Run Line (-19.9 Units / -11.31% ROI).

  • 55-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.75 Units / -16.98% ROI
  • 57-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.65 Units / -13.35% ROI
  • 70-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.6 Units / 5.19% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-66 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -0.99% ROI).

  • 74-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 1.47% ROI
  • 67-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 0.17% ROI
  • 61-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -8.33% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (100/519) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (843/1,181) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 56% (127/225) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (39/225) against Sandy Alcantara this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (seventh lowest)– 13th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (tied for fourth highest among qualified SPs)– 94th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (347/594) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — seventh Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (27/155) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has allowed an OBP of .395 (114 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — fourth Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 6-46 (.115) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.

The Marlins are just 6-60 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Marlins are just 7-34 (.171) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Phillies are 41-30 (.577) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.

The Phillies are 32-11 (.744) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .263 (1,139 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Marlins hitters have 788 strikeouts in 2,835 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .622 (2,835 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .573 (1,139 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,538 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .440.

The Phillies are batting .173 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .158.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (3,241 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (7,167 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (3,241 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.