- The Phillies (75-61) are -135 favorites vs the Marlins (55-80)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (12-7), 2.36 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (9-6), 4.47 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on Thursday, September 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 55-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-66 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | O 7 -105 | +115 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | U 7 -115 | -135 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.55 Units / 86% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 51 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -115 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 26 games (+1.35 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 76 of their last 131 games (+17.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+2.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+0.80 Units / 4% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 62-71 against the Run Line (-19.9 Units / -11.31% ROI).
- 55-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.75 Units / -16.98% ROI
- 57-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.65 Units / -13.35% ROI
- 70-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.6 Units / 5.19% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-66 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -0.99% ROI).
- 74-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 1.47% ROI
- 67-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 0.17% ROI
- 61-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -8.33% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (100/519) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (843/1,181) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 56% (127/225) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (39/225) against Sandy Alcantara this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (seventh lowest)– 13th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (tied for fourth highest among qualified SPs)– 94th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (347/594) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (27/155) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has allowed an OBP of .395 (114 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — fourth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 6-46 (.115) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Marlins are just 6-60 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Marlins are just 7-34 (.171) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies are 41-30 (.577) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Phillies are 32-11 (.744) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .263 (1,139 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have 788 strikeouts in 2,835 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .622 (2,835 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .573 (1,139 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,538 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .440.
The Phillies are batting .173 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .158.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (3,241 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (7,167 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (3,241 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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