- The Phillies are -190 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Miami Marlins (+155) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on Saturday, September 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 73-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 61-79 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -120 | O 9 +100 | +155 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +100 | U 9 -120 | -190 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 75.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Marlins vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.60 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+17.40 Units / 134% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+15.80 Units / 75% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+15.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+8.92 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.65 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.20 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+3.46 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+3.45 Units / 15% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 65-76 against the Run Line (-26.5 Units / -14.18% ROI).
- 73-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -1.12% ROI
- 64-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.65 Units / -8.96% ROI
- 71-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.26% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 61-79 against the Run Line (-25.5 Units / -14.69% ROI).
- 77-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -3.88% ROI
- 59-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.85 Units / -11% ROI
- 69-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 2.81% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased 259 of Johnny Cueto’s 668 fastballs out of the zone (39%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Johnny Cueto has a strikeout rate of just 7% (5 SO in 69 PAs) in late innings since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .125 (12 GB hits out of 96 GBs) against Johnny Cueto with runners on base since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.
Johnny Cueto has induced opposing hitters to ground into 26 double plays in 140 opportunities (19%) since last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (316/1,003) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (187/504) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (575/836) in two strike counts this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 92nd Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .862 (69 Total Bases / 80 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .602 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 19-71 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are 39-5 (.886) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Marlins are 20-2 (.909) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Marlins are 13-135 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 27-107 (.201) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Phillies are 11-7 (.611) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Phillies are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Phillies are 76-40 (.655) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 88 extra-base hits out of 323 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 169 extra-base hits out of 572 total hits (just 29%) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .459 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Phillies hitters are slugging .571 at home over the last 30 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .340 (2,556 PA’s) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,647 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .744.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,436 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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