Marlins vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 23

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 23, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (44-49) are -120 favorites vs the Pirates (39-55)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer (0-1), 8.43 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (2-5), 3.98 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Miami Marlins (-120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Marlins vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 44-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 47-47 ATS.

Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins-1.5 +135O 8 -110-120
Pirates +1.5 -165U 8 -110+100

Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 72.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.70 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 36 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 30 games at home (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Kevin Newman 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Cal Mitchell 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Josh VanMeter 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Oneil Cruz 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Kevin Newman 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Quintana 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
Max Meyer 4.5 +100 4.5 -145
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.60 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 48 away games (+5.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 73 games (+4.10 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 85 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.65 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+3.05 Units / 21% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-49 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -8.47% ROI).

  • 44-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.45 Units / -8.35% ROI
  • 45-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -2.82% ROI
  • 44-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -5.03% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-47 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -5.39% ROI).

  • 39-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.3% ROI
  • 39-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -13.9% ROI
  • 49-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 5.65% ROI

Max Meyer had a first-pitch strike rate of 78% (18/23) — tied for 5th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 94th Percentile.

Max Meyer allowed an OPS of 1.075 (23 PA’s) — 9th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .712 — 10th Percentile.

José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Quintana has allowed an OPS of .920 (197 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .624 — 0 Percentile.

Jose Quintana has an ERA of 9.64 (9.1 IP) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.41 — second Percentile.

Jose Quintana has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to June 23rd — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 8.

Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (287/562) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Marlins are 28-4 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

The Marlins are just 6-17 (.261) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.

The Marlins are just 4-32 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

The Marlins are just 16-45 (.262) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Pirates are just 82-21 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Pirates are just 14-49 (.222) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Pirates are just 28-6 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (2,400 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 660 strikeouts in 2,400 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .642 (2,400 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .609 (704 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,953 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,208 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Marlins pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 945 of 9,777 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 339 of 3,637 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 8.33 (54.0 IP) at home this month (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
  • Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): Undisclosed, D15
  • James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.