- The Marlins (44-49) are -120 favorites vs the Pirates (39-55)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer (0-1), 8.43 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (2-5), 3.98 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Miami Marlins (-120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 44-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 47-47 ATS.
Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -110 | -120 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -110 | +100 |
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 72.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.70 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 36 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 30 games at home (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Yoshitomo Tsutsugo | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Max Meyer | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 48 away games (+5.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 73 games (+4.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 85 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+3.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-49 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -8.47% ROI).
- 44-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.45 Units / -8.35% ROI
- 45-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -2.82% ROI
- 44-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -5.03% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-47 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -5.39% ROI).
- 39-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.3% ROI
- 39-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -13.9% ROI
- 49-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 5.65% ROI
Max Meyer: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Meyer had a first-pitch strike rate of 78% (18/23) — tied for 5th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 94th Percentile.
Max Meyer allowed an OPS of 1.075 (23 PA’s) — 9th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .712 — 10th Percentile.
José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has allowed an OPS of .920 (197 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .624 — 0 Percentile.
Jose Quintana has an ERA of 9.64 (9.1 IP) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.41 — second Percentile.
Jose Quintana has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to June 23rd — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 8.
Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (287/562) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are 28-4 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Marlins are just 6-17 (.261) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.
The Marlins are just 4-32 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Marlins are just 16-45 (.262) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Pirates are just 82-21 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Pirates are just 14-49 (.222) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Pirates are just 28-6 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (2,400 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 660 strikeouts in 2,400 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .642 (2,400 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .609 (704 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,953 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,208 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Marlins pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 945 of 9,777 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 339 of 3,637 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 8.33 (54.0 IP) at home this month (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): Undisclosed, D15
- James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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