- The Rays are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-200) on Tuesday, July 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 54-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 53-50 ATS.
Marlins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -120 | O 7.5 -120 | +165 |
| Rays | -1.5 +100 | U 7.5 +100 | -200 |
Marlins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 76.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+11.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Rays vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Rays vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Rays vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 8.5 +115 | 8.5 -150 |
| Edward Cabrera | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 68 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 away games (+10.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 90 games (+7.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 68 games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+14.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games at home (+10.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 54 games at home (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games at home (+9.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 54 games at home (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-54 against the Run Line (-16.65 Units / -12.49% ROI).
- 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 3.43% ROI
- 46-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -8.84% ROI
- 51-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.22% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 1.91% ROI).
- 61-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 0.93% ROI
- 53-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.05 Units / 1.8% ROI
- 46-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.1 Units / -10.73% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .053 (2 GB hits out of 38 GBs) against Edward Cabrera with runners on base this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (63/347) against Edward Cabrera since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 23 of 119 batters (19%) versus the top of the order this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Julio Urias allowed an OBP of just .251 (689 PA’s) in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 95th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (169/449) against Tyler Glasnow this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has allowed an OBP of just .042 (24 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 78% (14/18) against Tyler Glasnow — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (23/35) against Tyler Glasnow over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Marlins are just 86-22 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Marlins are 5-39 (.114) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are just 4-22 (.154) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Marlins are just 28-63 (.308) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rays are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Rays are 49-2 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Rays are just 10-20 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Rays are 28-7 (.800) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 55 extra-base hits out of 222 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins are batting .308 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored first in 61% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Rays are batting .267 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 67% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Rays hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 693 of 9,714 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rays pitchers have walked 2 of 88 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rays pitchers this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Taylor Walls (Rays): Oblique, D10
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Francisco Mejía (Rays): Knee, D10
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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