- The Red Sox are -130 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock
- Watch the game on NESN
The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Tuesday, June 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Marlins vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 45-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 41-38 ATS.
Marlins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | O 9.5 -110 | +110 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | U 9.5 -110 | -130 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+10.25 Units / 79% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI)
Red Sox vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Red Sox vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 +135 | 5.5 -175 |
| Garrett Whitlock | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 46 games (+14.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 68 games (+13.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 66 games (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 38-41 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -10.74% ROI).
- 45-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 10.67% ROI
- 35-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.95 Units / -12.61% ROI
- 42-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 4.08% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 41-38 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.68% ROI).
- 40-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -0.64% ROI
- 42-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.2 Units / 3.7% ROI
- 35-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.95 Units / -13.66% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (477/662) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .403 (29-for-72) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — second Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,504/2,082) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has an ERA of 5.08 this season — seventh worst among qualified SPs– ninth Percentile. He had an ERA of 2.28 last season — fifth best among qualified SPs– 91st Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock has a strike rate of 73% (132/180) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 66% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .429 (9-for-21) against Garrett Whitlock — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .255 — fourth Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has a strike rate of 73% (132/180) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has a strike rate of 72% (264/365) over the last 30 days (4 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Marlins are 5-29 (.147) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are 11-107 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Marlins are just 30-22 (.577) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Marlins are just 8-8 (.500) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Red Sox are 30-2 (.938) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Red Sox are just 7-16 (.304) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 14-11 (.560) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Red Sox are 13-6 (.684) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .547.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 86 double plays in 566 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have 44 extra-base hits out of 172 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,950 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .334 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .341 (4,558 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .360 (1,523 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers over the last 30 days (26 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% against Marlins pitchers over the last 30 days (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 24 of 437 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 69% over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 62%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 224 of 2,977 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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