- The Marlins are -110 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on NESN
The Miami Marlins (-110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-110) on Thursday, June 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Marlins vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 47-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 41-40 ATS.
Marlins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 +100 | -110 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -120 | -110 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 away games (+10.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+10.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 55% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Red Sox vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Red Sox vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Red Sox vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Red Sox vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 70 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 48 games (+15.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 48 games (+10.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 51% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 40-41 against the Run Line (-9 Units / -8.42% ROI).
- 47-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.75 Units / 12.59% ROI
- 36-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.05 Units / -12.4% ROI
- 43-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 3.92% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 41-40 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -3.9% ROI).
- 40-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -3.14% ROI
- 43-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 3.49% ROI
- 36-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -12 Units / -13.39% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has induced opposing hitters to ground into 11 double plays in 41 opportunities (27%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .414 (48 Total Bases / 116 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — seventh Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .265 (72-for-272) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 15th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (34/95) against Jesus Luzardo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 90th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 49% (113/231) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (30/176) against Brayan Bello since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .469 (45-for-96) against Brayan Bello when he’s behind in the count since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: .339 — third Percentile.
Brayan Bello has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to May 30th — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 9.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Marlins are 5-29 (.147) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are 26-9 (.743) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
The Marlins are 41-6 (.872) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Marlins are just 11-53 (.172) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Red Sox are just 7-16 (.304) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 30-2 (.938) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Red Sox are 13-6 (.684) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .544.
The Red Sox are 14-11 (.560) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins are batting .300 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 87 double plays in 581 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have 964 strikeouts in 3,672 PA’s (26%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .298 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .340 (2,381 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .357 (1,593 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .396 (333 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Marlins pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 231 of 3,063 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 25 of 443 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 50 of 716 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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