- The Marlins are -130 favorites vs the Reds
- Marlins vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Reds TV Channel: RDTV | MATV
The Miami Marlins (-130) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+105) on August 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Marlins are 63-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 63-57 ATS.
Marlins vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 6-9, 3.43 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 3-2, 4.84 ERA
Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -130 |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -115 | +105 |
Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+16.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+16.10 Units / 161% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Joe Mack has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Heriberto Hernandez has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+8.45 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+15.00 Units / 375% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+10.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+5.10 Units / 57% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+6.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 63-59 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -2.81% ROI).
- 63-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 1.8% ROI
- 61-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -3.83% ROI
- 60-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.9 Units / -5.07% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 63-57 against the Run Line (-8.9 Units / -5.23% ROI).
- 59-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -2.59% ROI
- 64-56 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.15 Units / 1.59% ROI
- 56-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.85 Units / -10.37% ROI
Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Yes | |
|---|---|
| Heriberto Hernandez | +240 |
| Eugenio Suarez | +250 |
| Sal Stewart | +270 |
| JJ Bleday | +280 |
| Elly De La Cruz | +310 |
Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Sanoja | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Sal Stewart | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Xavier Edwards | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Esteury Ruiz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Hector Rodriguez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Leonardo Jimenez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jakob Marsee | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Xavier Edwards | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins were just 62-100 (.383) in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins were just 60-86 (.411) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 6-61 (.090) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Reds were just 8-18 (.308) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Reds were just 4-63 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .285 this season — best in MLB.
Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .305 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.
Marlins hitters have put 39% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB.
The Marlins are batting .248 on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .220 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB.
The Reds are batting just .220 at home this season — lowest in MLB.
The Reds are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB.
The Reds are batting just .227 this season — lowest in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.41 (570.2 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.
Marlins pitchers have 206 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.
The Marlins have allowed 3.70 runs per game (233/63) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB.
The Reds pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB.
Reds pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of just 59% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
The Reds pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.4 MPH this season (3,040 balls in play) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB
More MLB Reading:
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