- The Reds are -170 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | FDFL
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-170) on Thursday, July 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 5:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Marlins are 42-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 48-44 ATS.
Marlins vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 3-7, 5.36 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 5-6, 3.62 ERA
Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 9 +100 | +140 |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -120 | -170 |
Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 59.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+15.00 Units / 250% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+12.65 Units / 67% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+8.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.05 Units / 49% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 away games (+15.65 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 72 games (+14.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 away games (+11.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 away games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 83 games (+4.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+4.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games (+3.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 54-37 against the Run Line (+9.8 Units / 8.17% ROI).
- 42-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 5.61% ROI
- 44-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -7.37% ROI
- 46-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -2.32% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 48-44 against the Run Line (-3.03 Units / -2.42% ROI).
- 47-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -1.77% ROI
- 39-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.49 Units / -16.2% ROI
- 51-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.2 Units / 7.97% ROI
Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill (MIA) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -118 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .371 (59-for-159) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batting at the bottom of the order are hitting .378 (34-for-90) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed a slugging percentage of .654 (104 Total Bases / 159 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .391 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OPS of 1.063 (171 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .694 — 0 Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .455 (15-for-33) against Nick Lodolo’s low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .269 — third Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has not walked any of the 116 opponent 7-8-9 hitters that he has faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has walked 5% of batters this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 90th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to June 6th — Jake Irvin has the longest active streak at 7.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 4-8 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 73-14 (.839) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.
The Marlins are just 68-18 (.791) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .863.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 8-21 (.276) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-35 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Reds are just 16-32 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Marlins hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .630 (1,072 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have walked 5% of batters this month (9 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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