- The Reds are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Marlins / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+130) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-155) on Friday, July 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Marlins are 32-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 53-41 ATS.
Marlins vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Yonny Chirinos 0-0, 4.27 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Carson Spiers 2-2, 3.65 ERA
Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -115 | +130 |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 -105 | -155 |
Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+16.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 41 away games (+18.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+11.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 21 games (+1.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+14.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+12.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 76 games (+11.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games at home (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 41-52 against the Run Line (-26.01 Units / -21.06% ROI).
- 32-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -22 Units / -22.18% ROI
- 49-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.4 Units / 3.31% ROI
- 42-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.05 Units / -10.83% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 53-41 against the Run Line (+7.9 Units / 6.38% ROI).
- 45-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -3.79% ROI
- 41-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.75 Units / -13.23% ROI
- 49-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.6 Units / 3.49% ROI
Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -400 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jake Fraley (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yonny Chirinos (MIA) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Carson Spiers (CIN) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 60% (33/55) against Yonny Chirinos on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (155/821) against Yonny Chirinos since last season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Yonny Chirinos has a strikeout rate of just 10% (5 SO in 51 PAs) in late innings since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Yonny Chirinos has a strikeout rate of just 16% (73 SO in 455 PAs) since last season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 22% — seventh Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 10% (4/42) against Carson Spiers this month (1 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Carson Spiers has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (20/179 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Carson Spiers has allowed a slugging percentage of .818 (18 Total Bases / 22 ABs) this month (1 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .413 — second Percentile.
Carson Spiers has walked 9 of 179 batters (5%) this season — tied for 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Marlins are just 27-20 (.574) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Marlins are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .861.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 9-18 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 28-31 (.475) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .584 (1,085 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .264 (1,578 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .596 (1,096 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .152 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds are batting just .140 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Reds are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Reds hitters have 29 extra-base hits out of 50 total hits (58%) against RHP this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 211 of 2,274 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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