Marlins vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 25, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Reds (36-58) are -135 favorites vs the Marlins (45-50)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (4-9), 5.46 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (2-3), 5.81 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-135) on Monday, July 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Marlins vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 45-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 44-50 ATS.

Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -175O 9 -105+110
Reds -1.5 +145U 9 -115-135

Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s matchup with 63.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+13.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.75 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+18.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 38 of his last 61 games (+18.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 52 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI)

Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Donovan Solano 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Joey Votto 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
Jonathan India 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +425 0.5 -900

Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Donovan Solano 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Joey Votto 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Jonathan India 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Donovan Solano 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Joey Votto 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jonathan India 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +150 0.5 -225

Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Trevor Rogers 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 75 games (+4.10 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 away games (+0.95 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 66 games (+11.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 78 games (+6.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 68 games (+6.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-51 against the Run Line (-12.45 Units / -9.92% ROI).

  • 45-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -8.35% ROI
  • 46-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -2.76% ROI
  • 45-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -4.92% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-50 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -10.84% ROI).

  • 36-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.7 Units / -11.71% ROI
  • 51-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 4.44% ROI
  • 42-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -13.98% ROI

Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .459 (61 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .317 — second Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .736 (106 Total Bases / 144 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .543 — third Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 29% of the time (112/380) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (54/300) against Trevor Rogers this season — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 24% — ninth Percentile.

Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .479 (48 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .315 — second Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 46% of Nick Lodolo’s pitches (38/83) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has a strike rate of just 57% (149/259) this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 28% (14/51) against Nick Lodolo with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Marlins are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are just 16-46 (.258) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Marlins are just 6-17 (.261) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

The Marlins are just 5-32 (.135) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Reds are just 26-6 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Reds are just 12-46 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Reds are just 16-29 (.356) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .480.

The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,427 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 665 strikeouts in 2,427 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,427 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .275 (731 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

The Reds are batting just .105 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .279 (426 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 38% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Reds hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have struck out 33% of left-handed batters they faced over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 49 double plays in 737 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Reds have allowed 1.82 runs per game (171/94) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.

Reds pitchers have walked 43 of 328 batters (13%) over the last 14 days (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
  • James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.