- The Reds (36-58) are -135 favorites vs the Marlins (45-50)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (4-9), 5.46 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (2-3), 5.81 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-135) on Monday, July 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Marlins vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 45-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 44-50 ATS.
Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -105 | +110 |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -115 | -135 |
Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s matchup with 63.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+13.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+18.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 38 of his last 61 games (+18.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 52 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 75 games (+4.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 away games (+0.95 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 66 games (+11.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 78 games (+6.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 68 games (+6.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-51 against the Run Line (-12.45 Units / -9.92% ROI).
- 45-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -8.35% ROI
- 46-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -2.76% ROI
- 45-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -4.92% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-50 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -10.84% ROI).
- 36-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.7 Units / -11.71% ROI
- 51-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 4.44% ROI
- 42-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -13.98% ROI
Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .459 (61 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .317 — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .736 (106 Total Bases / 144 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .543 — third Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 29% of the time (112/380) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (54/300) against Trevor Rogers this season — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 24% — ninth Percentile.
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .479 (48 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .315 — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 46% of Nick Lodolo’s pitches (38/83) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strike rate of just 57% (149/259) this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 28% (14/51) against Nick Lodolo with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 16-46 (.258) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Marlins are just 6-17 (.261) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Marlins are just 5-32 (.135) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 26-6 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Reds are just 12-46 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Reds are just 16-29 (.356) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,427 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 665 strikeouts in 2,427 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,427 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .275 (731 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .105 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .279 (426 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 38% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have struck out 33% of left-handed batters they faced over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 49 double plays in 737 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Reds have allowed 1.82 runs per game (171/94) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Reds pitchers have walked 43 of 328 batters (13%) over the last 14 days (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
- James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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