- The Reds (37-59) are -145 favorites vs the Marlins (46-51)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (2-3), 3.42 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (3-4), 2.76 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-145) on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 46-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 46-50 ATS.
Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -110 | +120 |
| Reds | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -110 | -145 |
Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 67.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+12.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+18.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 39 of his last 63 games (+18.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 54 games (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 -110 |
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 29 of their last 52 away games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 77 games (+3.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 13 away games (+0.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 13 away games (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 68 games (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games (+8.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+6.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-53 against the Run Line (-15.1 Units / -11.79% ROI).
- 46-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -8.2% ROI
- 47-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -2.89% ROI
- 46-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -4.87% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 46-50 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -8.52% ROI).
- 37-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -11.49% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 4.15% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.55 Units / -13.75% ROI
Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .131 (11-for-84) against Braxton Garrett this month (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (4-for-40) against Braxton Garrett — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .077 (2-for-26) against Braxton Garrett with two-strikes — 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .176 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Braxton Garrett — tied for 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .249 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 51% (31 SO in 61 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .102 (5-for-49) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 99th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown at least 100 pitches in each of his last nine starts — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (407/736) against Luis Castillo since the start of last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Marlins are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Reds are just 12-47 (.203) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Reds are just 25-6 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Reds are just 16-29 (.356) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .477.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (754 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .110 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (18 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .279 (433 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .324 (7,116 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers this month (23 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 50 double plays in 749 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 369 of 3,726 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Reds have allowed 1.78 runs per game (171/96) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Reds vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
- James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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