Marlins vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 27, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Reds (37-59) are -145 favorites vs the Marlins (46-51)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (2-3), 3.42 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (3-4), 2.76 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-145) on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Marlins vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 46-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 46-50 ATS.

Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -160O 8.5 -110+120
Reds -1.5 +135U 8.5 -110-145

Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 67.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+12.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.15 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+18.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 39 of his last 63 games (+18.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 54 games (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)

Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Donovan Solano 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Joey Votto 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Jonathan India 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +333 0.5 -600

Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Donovan Solano 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Joey Votto 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Jonathan India 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Matt Reynolds 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Donovan Solano 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Joey Votto 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Jonathan India 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +135 0.5 -190

Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Braxton Garrett 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
Luis Castillo 6.5 +115 6.5 -165
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 29 of their last 52 away games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 77 games (+3.90 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 13 away games (+0.90 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 13 away games (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 68 games (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games (+8.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+6.10 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-53 against the Run Line (-15.1 Units / -11.79% ROI).

  • 46-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -8.2% ROI
  • 47-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -2.89% ROI
  • 46-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -4.87% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 46-50 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -8.52% ROI).

  • 37-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -11.49% ROI
  • 52-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 4.15% ROI
  • 43-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.55 Units / -13.75% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .131 (11-for-84) against Braxton Garrett this month (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .100 (4-for-40) against Braxton Garrett — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .077 (2-for-26) against Braxton Garrett with two-strikes — 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .176 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Braxton Garrett — tied for 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .249 — 98th Percentile.

Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 51% (31 SO in 61 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .102 (5-for-49) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 99th Percentile.

Luis Castillo has thrown at least 100 pitches in each of his last nine starts — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (407/736) against Luis Castillo since the start of last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Marlins are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Reds are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Reds are just 12-47 (.203) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Reds are just 25-6 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Reds are just 16-29 (.356) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .477.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (754 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

The Reds are batting just .110 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (18 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.

Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .279 (433 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .324 (7,116 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers this month (23 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 50 double plays in 749 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 369 of 3,726 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Reds have allowed 1.78 runs per game (171/96) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Reds vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
  • James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.