- The Reds are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | FDFL
The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Tuesday, July 8, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Marlins are 41-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 47-43 ATS.
Marlins vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 1-2, 4.50 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 6-8, 4.26 ERA
Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -210 | O 9 -115 | +105 |
| Reds | -1.5 +160 | U 9 -105 | -125 |
Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eury Perez has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last 4 games (+4.15 Units / 82% ROI)
- Eury Perez has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Eury Perez has hit the Earned Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Eury Perez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 9% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- No trends found
Marlins Best Bets Today:
Reds Best Bets Today:
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 53-36 against the Run Line (+9.45 Units / 8.22% ROI).
- 41-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 4.51% ROI
- 43-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -7.52% ROI
- 45-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -2.3% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 47-43 against the Run Line (-2.48 Units / -2.03% ROI).
- 46-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.33% ROI
- 38-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.39 Units / -16.64% ROI
- 50-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 8.33% ROI
Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
| Eury Perez (MIA) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 50% (20/40) against Eury Perez over the past seven days (1 game) — best among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .050 (1-for-20) against Eury Perez in his last start — 4th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .226 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 15% (2/13) against Eury Perez in his last start — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Eury Perez has allowed an OBP of just .095 (21 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 game) — 2nd best among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .279 — 98th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (36/113) against Nick Martinez in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Nick Martinez has a strikeout rate of just 14% (10 SO in 70 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .279 (17-for-61) against Nick Martinez’s elevated fastball this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .212 — eighth Percentile.
Nick Martinez has walked 6% of left-handed batters this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 83rd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 36-65 (.356) after a win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 72-14 (.837) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.
The Marlins are just 4-8 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 67-18 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .862.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 43-4 (.915) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .957.
The Reds are just 8-21 (.276) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 15-23 (.395) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Marlins are batting .264 on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Reds are batting just .215 with two outs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Reds hitters are slugging just .362 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
The Reds are batting just .211 against division opponents this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 4% of batters over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Marlins pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 45% of the time over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.57 runs per game (234/42) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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