- The Marlins are -125 favorites vs the Rockies
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland
- Watch the game on SportsNet RM
The Miami Marlins (-125) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+105) on Thursday, May 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Denver.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Rockies Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 25-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 23-27 ATS.
Marlins vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | O 11 -115 | -125 |
| Rockies | +1.5 -150 | U 11 -105 | +105 |
Marlins vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 59.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+8.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.55 Units / 78% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+9.45 Units / 86% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+8.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Charlie Blackmon has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 11 games at home (+8.10 Units / 74% ROI)
- Kris Bryant has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Harold Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+6.90 Units / 28% ROI)
Rockies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Rockies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -185 |
| Brenton Doyle | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Jorge Soler | 1.5 +125 | 1.5 -165 |
| Jon Berti | 1.5 +125 | 1.5 -160 |
| Nick Fortes | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
Rockies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Rockies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +135 |
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+3.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 31 games (+7.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 games (+7.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 19-31 against the Run Line (-19 Units / -28.19% ROI).
- 25-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -0.51% ROI
- 21-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.35 Units / -15.22% ROI
- 27-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 7.25% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 23-27 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -11.12% ROI).
- 21-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -3.77% ROI
- 21-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.1 Units / -19.89% ROI
- 29-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.5 Units / 11.97% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has allowed an OPS of just .329 (41 PA’s) — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .693 — 98th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (298/626) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .118 (4-for-34) against Braxton Garrett — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .229 — 97th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett allowed an OPS of just .145 (21 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .655 — 100th Percentile.
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .267 against Kyle Freeland on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs– 87th Percentile. Opponents batted .438 (49-for-112) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — second worst among qualified SPs– fourth Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has allowed a slugging percentage of .879 (29 Total Bases / 33 ABs) on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .398 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (35/259) against Kyle Freeland in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has allowed a slugging percentage of .489 (45 Total Bases / 92 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Marlins are just 1-22 (.043) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Marlins are just 67-17 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Marlins are just 3-6 (.333) after a road win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Marlins are just 10-75 (.118) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rockies are 19-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Rockies are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Rockies are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rockies are just 57-28 (.671) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .286 (1,701 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 49 double plays in 319 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .290 (3,397 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .640 (1,701 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies are batting .281 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Rockies have won just 47% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Rockies have an average HR distance of 411.9 feet since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.4.
The Rockies are batting .280 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Rockies pitchers have walked 54 of 434 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Rockies pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (965.0 IP) at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Rockies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Rockies): oblique, D15
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Ryan Feltner (Rockies): Skull, D15
- Christopher Cron (Rockies): Back, D10
- Noah Davis (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Germán Márquez (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Dinelson Lamet (Rockies): Back, D15
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Luis Arraez (Marlins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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