- The White Sox are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- White Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Miami Marlins (+100) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-120) on Sunday, June 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The White Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Marlins vs White Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 36-29 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 33-33 ATS.
Marlins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -110 | +100 |
| White Sox | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -110 | -120 |
Marlins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 60.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+13.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+13.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+12.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.55 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tim Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Tim Anderson has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+10.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Tim Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+8.80 Units / 38% ROI)
White Sox vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Clint Frazier | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
White Sox vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Clint Frazier | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
White Sox vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Clint Frazier | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
White Sox vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -250 | 4.5 +185 |
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 games (+11.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.50 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.30 Units / 24% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+6.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.05 Units / 83% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 31-34 against the Run Line (-9.5 Units / -11.01% ROI).
- 36-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 8.89% ROI
- 28-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -14.33% ROI
- 35-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 6.08% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 33-33 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -5.14% ROI).
- 29-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -13% ROI
- 30-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -6.63% ROI
- 32-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -1.23% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Division opponents are hitting .411 (30-for-73) against Braxton Garrett this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 46% (77/166) against Braxton Garrett on sliders this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has averaged 89.3 MPH on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — third Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (27/248 PA’s) this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito has an average spin rate of 1960.6 RPM on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 2404.3 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 19% (14/73) against Lucas Giolito this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed an OPS of just .143 (21 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — best in AL over the last week; League Avg: .652 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (197/657) against Lucas Giolito since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Marlins are 4-25 (.138) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are just 29-22 (.569) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Marlins are just 15-11 (.577) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Marlins are just 74-18 (.804) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The White Sox are just 3-10 (.231) after a road win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The White Sox are just 11-84 (.116) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The White Sox are just 10-19 (.345) after a win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The White Sox are just 22-3 (.880) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 43 extra-base hits out of 156 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 69 double plays in 451 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .658 (1,886 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (1,886 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have drawn 399 walks in 6,706 PA’s (6%) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
White Sox hitters have drawn 124 walks in 1,926 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
White Sox hitters have 18 strikeouts in 39 PA’s (46%) against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox hitters have drawn 55 walks in 1,059 PA’s (5%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Marlins pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Marlins pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have walked 255 of 2,536 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against White Sox pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
White Sox vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Billy Hamilton (White Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Elbow, D15
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- James Lambert (White Sox): Ankle, D15
- Eloy Jiménez (White Sox): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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