• The Yankees are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Yankees Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Marlins / Yankees TV Channel: MATV | YES

The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-200) on April 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 pm in Bronx, NY.

This season, the Marlins are 5-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 6-1 ATS.

Marlins vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 0-0, 5.41 ERA
• Yankees starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers 0-0, 2.08 ERA

Marlins vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 59.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Agustin Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 58% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.75 Units / 59% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 34% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+9.00 Units / 300% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+11.60 Units / 129% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 62% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+9.40 Units / 188% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.60 Units / 42% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 54% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 98 games (+23.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 87 games (+20.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 75 away games (+15.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 63 away games (+12.79 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 63 away games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Yankees Best Bets Today:

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+21.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 51 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 77 games at home (+12.12 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+11.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 51 games (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 2-5 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -34.21% ROI).

• 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 22.42% ROI
• 4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 9.8% ROI
• 3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -18.06% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 6-1 against the Run Line (+7.25 Units / 103.57% ROI).

• 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 54.24% ROI
• 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -31.58% ROI
• 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 21.79% ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Marlins were 65-1 (.985) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .956.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins are just 146-185 (.441) since the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are just 21-76 (.216) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Yankees were 56-37 (.602) after a win in the 2025 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Yankees were 29-23 (.558) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2025 season Today, they face Marlins (fifth in runs allowed).

The Yankees were 94-68 (.580) in the 2025 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Yankees are 73-11 (.869) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

The Marlins are batting .275 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of .824 (174 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 42% of their swings in play in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB.

Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends

Yankees hitters slugged .458 on the road in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Yankees hitters are slugging .453 against LHP since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Yankees hitters slugged .695 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 57% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes in the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends

The Yankees pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 1.16 (62.1 IP) this season — best in MLB.

Yankees pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .221 (235 PA’s) this season — best in MLB.

The Yankees have allowed 1.14 runs per game (8/7) this season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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