• The Yankees are -300 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Yankees Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Marlins / Yankees TV Channel: MATV | YES

The Miami Marlins (+240) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-300) on April 5, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 pm in Bronx, NY.

This season, the Marlins are 5-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 7-1 ATS.

Marlins vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 0-1, 18.02 ERA
• Yankees starting pitcher: Max Fried 2-0, 0.00 ERA

Marlins vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 70.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 62% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Over in his last 8 games (+10.60 Units / 133% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 60% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.75 Units / 59% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+9.00 Units / 300% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+13.05 Units / 130% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 62% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+8.40 Units / 140% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 54% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 98 games (+23.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 87 games (+20.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 75 away games (+15.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 63 away games (+12.79 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 63 away games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Yankees Best Bets Today:

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+21.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 51 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 77 games at home (+12.12 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+11.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 51 games (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 2-6 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -43.82% ROI).

• 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 12.35% ROI
• 5-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 20.23% ROI
• 3-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -29.05% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 7-1 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 104.38% ROI).

• 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 53.7% ROI
• 3-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -16.28% ROI
• 4-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 5.56% ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Marlins were 9-67 (.118) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .090.

The Marlins were 65-1 (.985) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .956.

The Marlins are just 21-76 (.216) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Marlins are just 140-157 (.471) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Yankees were 94-68 (.580) in the 2025 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Yankees were 56-37 (.602) after a win in the 2025 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Yankees are 97-29 (.770) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .640.

The Yankees are 170-11 (.939) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .904.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

The Marlins are batting .292 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging .357 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

The Marlins are batting .304 on breaking pitches this season — best in MLB.

Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends

Yankees hitters slugged .457 against LHP in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Yankees hitters slugged .455 in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Yankees hitters drew walks in 11% of their PA’s against LHP in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Yankees hitters had an OPS of .794 (3,255 PA’s) on the road in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 55% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 4.97 (702.1 IP) on the road in the 2025 season — 4th highest in MLB.

Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends

The Yankees pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

The Yankees have allowed 1.88 runs per game (15/8) this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 1.77 (71.1 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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