- The Astros are -120 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (+100) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on Monday, June 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 33-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 35-37 ATS.
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -110 | +100 |
| Astros | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -110 | -120 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 57.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+10.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+8.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+8.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jake Meyers has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Hunter Brown | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 61 games (+5.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 49% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 41 games (+13.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games (+8.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+7.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+2.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 26-45 against the Run Line (-24.1 Units / -26.97% ROI).
- 33-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -21 Units / -20.51% ROI
- 32-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.9 Units / -12.68% ROI
- 38-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 3.45% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 35-37 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -5.42% ROI).
- 39-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -5.93% ROI
- 35-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -6.09% ROI
- 36-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -2.92% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has not allowed a walk in his last 83 PAs against a RHH dating back to April 19th — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 108.
Max Scherzer has allowed a slugging percentage of .814 (35 Total Bases / 43 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .439 — first Percentile.
Max Scherzer has a strike rate of 70% (1,134/1,616) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has walked 2 of 121 batters (2%) over the last 30 days (5 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 12% (12/102) against Hunter Brown when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (142/244) against Hunter Brown since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (45/244) against Hunter Brown since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has thrown breaking pitches 57% of the time (333/586) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are just 22-13 (.629) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .785.
The Mets are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
The Mets are just 5-4 (.556) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Mets are just 2-6 (.250) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 7-3 (.700) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Astros are 63-13 (.829) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are 145-89 (.620) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 540 strikeouts in 2,714 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have just 158 strikeouts in 791 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets are batting .259 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (6,168 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 445 strikeouts in 2,562 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 825 strikeouts in 4,643 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.74 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros have allowed 3.37 runs per game (388/115) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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