- The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The New York Mets (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Tuesday, June 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 34-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 35-38 ATS.
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -120 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 +100 | -145 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+10.40 Units / 91% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 44 games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jake Meyers has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 50 games (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 62 games (+4.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 8 games (+0.30 Units / 3% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.15 Units / 3% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games (+12.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.15 Units / 58% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 27-45 against the Run Line (-23.1 Units / -25.23% ROI).
- 34-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -20 Units / -19.34% ROI
- 33-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -11.24% ROI
- 38-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 2.02% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 35-38 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -6.42% ROI).
- 39-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.85 Units / -6.93% ROI
- 36-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -4.77% ROI
- 36-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -4.25% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (415 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: .309 — 99th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .482 (416 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: .702 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .255 (98 Total Bases / 384 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: .393 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .547 (852 PA’s) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: .710 — 98th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (571/1,175) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 38% (77/203) against Framber Valdez this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 51% of the time (177/350) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are just 10-13 (.435) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
The Mets are just 23-13 (.639) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Mets are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Mets are just 4-82 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Astros are 67-8 (.893) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Astros are 63-13 (.829) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are 47-80 (.370) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .288.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .260 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .744 (6,212 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Mets hitters have just 1,239 strikeouts in 6,212 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets have been successful on 67% of their hit & run attempts since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 445 strikeouts in 2,562 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 825 strikeouts in 4,643 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 124 strikeouts in 712 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros have allowed 3.37 runs per game (388/115) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Francisco Ãlvarez (Mets): Hand, Day-to-Day
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