- The Astros (42-25) are -145 favorites vs the Mets (45-25)
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (8-2), 3.96 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (4-5), 3.40 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Wednesday, June 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 45-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 32-35 ATS.
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -105 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -115 | -145 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 73.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 away games (+9.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+5.80 Units / 29% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.90 Units / 78% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Michael Brantley | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael Brantley | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael Brantley | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +120 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
| Luis Garcia | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 70 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games (+8.52 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+17.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+9.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 48 games (+3.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 40-30 against the Run Line (+11.35 Units / 13.53% ROI).
- 45-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.8 Units / 15.1% ROI
- 37-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.5 Units / 5.75% ROI
- 29-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.15 Units / -14.68% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 32-35 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -1.64% ROI).
- 42-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 4.47% ROI
- 22-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.25 Units / -31.78% ROI
- 42-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.65 Units / 23.72% ROI
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .425 (17-for-40) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — fifth Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.093 (212 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .770 — second Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .700 (28 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .425 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 33% (70/212) against Carlos Carrasco this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 92nd Percentile.
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
33 of Luis Garcia’s 69 strikeouts (48%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .123 (57 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .300 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Luis Garcia’s breaking pitches (247/704) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Garcia has allowed a slugging percentage of just .170 (9 Total Bases / 53 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .361 — 96th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are 37-7 (.841) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mets are 24-10 (.706) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Mets are just 4-13 (.235) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Mets are 11-3 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 24-1 (.960) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Astros are 23-2 (.920) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Astros are 19-11 (.633) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Astros are 39-7 (.848) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 559 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .295 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,670 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 510 strikeouts in 2,812 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .186 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Astros hitters have just 130 strikeouts in 731 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.66 (271.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.03 (591.1 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Astros pitchers have walked 222 of 2,570 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.0 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 400.0
Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeremy Peña (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
- Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Jeff McNeil (Mets): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
- Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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