Mets vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 22

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 22, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (42-25) are -145 favorites vs the Mets (45-25)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (8-2), 3.96 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (4-5), 3.40 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Mets (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Wednesday, June 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 45-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 32-35 ATS.

Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -165O 8 -105+120
Astros -1.5 +140U 8 -115-145

Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 73.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 away games (+9.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Eduardo Escobar has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+5.80 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.90 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.25 Units / 36% ROI)

Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Michael Brantley 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Yordan Alvarez 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Yuli Gurriel 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jose Altuve 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Michael Brantley 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Yordan Alvarez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jose Altuve 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Michael Brantley 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Yordan Alvarez 0.5 +125 0.5 -175

Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Garcia 4.5 -175 4.5 +120
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Luis Garcia 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 70 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games (+8.52 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+17.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+9.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 94% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 48 games (+3.10 Units / 6% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 40-30 against the Run Line (+11.35 Units / 13.53% ROI).

  • 45-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.8 Units / 15.1% ROI
  • 37-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.5 Units / 5.75% ROI
  • 29-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.15 Units / -14.68% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 32-35 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -1.64% ROI).

  • 42-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 4.47% ROI
  • 22-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.25 Units / -31.78% ROI
  • 42-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.65 Units / 23.72% ROI

Opponents are hitting .425 (17-for-40) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — fifth Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.093 (212 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .770 — second Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .700 (28 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .425 — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 33% (70/212) against Carlos Carrasco this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 92nd Percentile.

Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

33 of Luis Garcia’s 69 strikeouts (48%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .123 (57 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .300 — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 35% of Luis Garcia’s breaking pitches (247/704) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.

Luis Garcia has allowed a slugging percentage of just .170 (9 Total Bases / 53 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .361 — 96th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mets are 37-7 (.841) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets are 24-10 (.706) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Mets are just 4-13 (.235) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.

The Mets are 11-3 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Astros are 24-1 (.960) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Astros are 23-2 (.920) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Astros are 19-11 (.633) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Astros are 39-7 (.848) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 559 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .295 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,670 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Astros hitters have just 510 strikeouts in 2,812 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .186 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Astros hitters have just 130 strikeouts in 731 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.66 (271.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.03 (591.1 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.

Astros pitchers have walked 222 of 2,570 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.0 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 400.0

Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jeremy Peña (Astros): Thumb, D10
  • Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
  • Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Jeff McNeil (Mets): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
  • Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.