- The Astros are -125 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco, 9.00 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, 0.00 ERA
The New York Mets (+105) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-125) on Tuesday, March 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EST in West Palm Beach.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Mets are 3-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 5-3 ATS.
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | O 10 -115 | +105 |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | U 10 -105 | -125 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 60.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- No trends found
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+2.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+2.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 3-4 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -16.02% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -29.79% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 39.07% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -45.57% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 5-3 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 11.54% ROI).
- 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 18.6% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.7 Units / -52.51% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 44.51% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .955 (84 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when he was behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco allowed an OPS of 1.539 (106 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.038 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .500 against Carlos Carrasco (44-for-88) when he was behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .690 (58 Total Bases / 84 ABs) on inside fastballs last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .420 — first Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.73 (734.0 IP) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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