Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 15

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 15, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (70-46) are -165 favorites vs the Mets (75-40)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (13-4), 3.76 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (6-4), 3.11 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSO

The New York Mets (+135) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-165) on Monday, August 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 75-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 60-56 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -155O 8 -115+135
Braves -1.5 +125U 8 -105-165

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 56.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+17.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 54 away games (+15.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 away games (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 36 games at home (+17.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 60 of his last 104 games (+16.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 60 of his last 102 games (+14.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 38 of his last 53 games at home (+14.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Matt Olson 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Matt Olson 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Michael Harris 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Ronald Acuna 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +110 0.5 -160
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +130 0.5 -185
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Matt Olson 0.5 +100 0.5 -140

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
Spencer Strider 5.5 -165 5.5 +115
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 115 games (+21.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 115 games (+17.47 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 115 games (+16.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 77 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 90 games (+18.22 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 66 games (+18.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.70 Units / 75% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-51 against the Run Line (+16.3 Units / 11.71% ROI).

  • 75-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.3 Units / 12.08% ROI
  • 58-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.7 Units / 2.12% ROI
  • 50-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -10.56% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 60-56 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -2.07% ROI).

  • 70-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 2.84% ROI
  • 58-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 1.48% ROI
  • 51-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.8 Units / -10.05% ROI

Opponents are hitting .522 (35-for-67) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .375 (24-for-64) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — second Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.535 (82 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.028 — first Percentile.

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 36 ABs ending on a two-strike curveball from Carlos Carrasco. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 38% (138 SO in 363 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (50/118) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 40% (149/371) against Spencer Strider this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has struck out 57% (12/21) of right-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Mets are 64-16 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets are 55-5 (.917) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.

The Mets are 26-5 (.839) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 9-2 (.818) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 48-6 (.889) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.

The Braves are 61-14 (.813) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Braves are 30-3 (.909) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .667.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,014 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Mets hitters have just 593 strikeouts in 3,014 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets are batting .193 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .170.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Braves hitters are slugging .686 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.

Braves hitters are slugging .503 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .855 (874 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

Braves hitters are slugging .314 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have walked 3 of 115 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
  • Max Fried (Braves): Head, D7
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): COVID, D10
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.